Cycle High -- 22 May 2022 Price Will Be between: $108,000 to 136,500 (66% probable) | 3x Uptrend $180,000 to 227,500 (33% probable) | 5x Uptrend
Plot Settings Fast: EMA 7 186 off set Slow: MA 28 186 off set
Comment
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I said that the "Uptrend begins" on 7 Apr 2022. Though slight, an uptrend began on 22 Jan (higher lows). I should have said a SHARP UPTREND BEGINS on this date.
This can't be ruled out, thanks for the perspective. Though every fractal pattern i've assessed that BTC and other assets have stayed tightly correlated to for the past year or more paint a different picture. We should have one more leg down before the recovery bull run beings. Some assets will ignite a mega rally, while others will gradually rise, including BTC - to 60k ish, before next consolidation period. BTC won't start making new highs sometime until the summer or early fall at best (see covid crash, defi summer and fall 2020 - spring 2021 as basis for how things may rhyme). The macro bull cycle should last until Q3 - Q4 of 2023 with one more meso bear market somewhere in there. It seems we're in a super cycle unlike any of the previous cycles.
CollectingCoins
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In looking at your last two posts, your track record is unbelievably accurate (assuming bottom is in for this cycle @ ~33K); amazing TA! Any chance you've looked at how this price action would extrapolate to ETH or any Alt coins?
SprocketsOnline
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@CollectingCoins, I think a rising tide will raise all ships, especially ETH.
highkatmai
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Hello Nickimatic, is there anything new to say regarding the analysis? Let‘s wait and see what comes. Cheers
CollectingCoins
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Still so fascinated with this analysis, that I'm curious if you think based on the price action over the past week, if the sharp uptrend you forecasted to begin on 4/7 is now underway, or if you think this is a false start and we still see a strong pullback/shakeout in the coming days before the true climb up?
highkatmai
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Hello Nickimatic, I like the analysis. Nobody expects that. One more question: is there a big sale planned before April 7th? 35', 30' or 25' Many analysts, including here on TA, still see it that way. Thanks in advance
highkatmai
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@Nickimatic, I asked because I currently assumed that we are currently increasing from around 41' to a minimum of 45' and a maximum of 60'. Then halving or more down max. approx. 25' and only then the increase but max. up to 100'. While BTC can move quickly, the timing (rise from April 7th from 44.5') won't fit. Let's wait and see what happens. Regards
BTC is more mature and cycles are more reliable (to parallel past close-in cycles) than imature coins. The market missed the expected sharp high in Dec 2021. This was as expected, since the BTC cylce is likely lengthening.
The major risk to this analysis is the lack of historical data to project forward (use of TradingView offsets, on this dataset, can only go forward about 200 days or so).
I made a gamble, of sorts, on my expected rally... I was looking for a pattern to emerge and I saw the making if one so I made a bold "prediction."
Moreover the price spike is assumed; because, of the "spring tension" that shorts (incl futures) have played on the BTC price.
Big swing like this are far more risky to anticipate. We'll see.
SprocketsOnline
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@highkatmai I'm not sure about the daily moves with very short-term patterns. As you likey know, we can assume there will be volatility. But it would be total guessing to say yes or no to your question. Cheers.
highkatmai
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@Nickimatic, thank you. Let’s wait and see. Cheers