AlexPrather
Long

Bitcoin: Selling exhuastion

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
3795 12 10
Here I write my reasons why I think atm we are at a long term low risk entry point. By long term of course i mean 3-9 months as that is "long" in bitcoin space. We have seen an exhaustion of seeling here are some technicals

1. Buy cry die set up. AT "BUY" labeled in chart you see buyers trying to "time" a bottom and thus you see a quick rebound. Next up you see Cry, that is where a new low is made because all the speculative buyers trying to time bottom were exhuasted, in this case the buyers at "BUY" are crying. A short while later a new low is made, and the buyers who bought at BUY, affectionately "Die" Or rather throw in the towel as they think selling will accelrate. Notice how no Lows other than BUY had quick, momentuous, high volume rebounds: Noone was trying to time those bottoms.
All the people trying to time bottom at BUY end up making the "real" bottom at die. Of course I dont know if this is the bottom.

2. RSI divergence is strong, new lows are coming with less strength.

3. Price will have a hard time going below or around the price of initial bubble dump (in this case 380) .

4.bid/ask continues to be out of wack. in fact the lower we go the more out of wack it appears. In some cases i actually see total bids incrase as we go lower. This is the most depth for a +/- 50 dollar price range I've ever seen in bitcoin .

Fundamentals:
1. Bitcoin is all speculative still so fundamentals barely matter, but here are some points
2. we are getting closer to april 15th and major exchanges in china have still to receive anything and are operating as normal.

3. Concerns appear to be about third party payment processors

4. situation still unclear, but potentially priced in. This could be a silk road style situation at this point, where any super selloff could see buyers come in

5. Bitcoin investments continue and the regulatory front is getting clearer by the day.

Overall This is a very strong buy signal for me. I would encourage risk-seeking investors to consider taking a stance here for maximum upside/downside ratio. For those who are more conservative, look at my last chart and wait for established uptrend w/ a close over 10dma.
chenriquev
2 years ago
Just one note on you fundamentals:
http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-bitcoin-exchanges-okcoin-fxbtc-report-new-deposit-freezes/
Basically 99.9% of chances to have BTC completely banned in China.

In any case, I believe that BTC/LTC are going to go back from this. I just dont know when but we must pay attention to get into it.
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AlexPrather chenriquev
2 years ago
Yes I read this article, So far it seems to be only third party payment processors, we will see how it works out going forward
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BuyOnPurple PRO
2 years ago
Wow, that's a huge divergence. No idea how I missed such a strong one, I look almost everywhere. That being said, the RSI is having a lot of trouble breaking the 60% resistance... it's possible it's played out already. I will keep on eye on it though.
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flibbr PRO
2 years ago
That is a HELL OF ALOT of divergence building there...
One thing I'd like to add.. is that although daily willy is not quite so stupidly oversold... 12 hour willy is.. the last time it was this stupidly oversold was at $50 on the last crash before take off.... see here
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liquid-illusions
2 years ago
Don't underestimate the downward force when the RSI trend line breaks down
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LazyBear PRO
2 years ago
snapshot


BTCE showing this too

(People in the bitcoin talks chat have prob seen this already)
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flibbr PRO LazyBear
2 years ago
Just another good reason imo. Like this one.
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LazyBear PRO LazyBear
2 years ago
This is day chart showing divergence. I merged in the oscillator with the price to show the famous "btce spike" is not included in the divergence.

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HosseinMansouri
2 years ago
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HosseinMansouri HosseinMansouri
2 years ago
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liquid-illusions
2 years ago
Everyone here is bull, therefore, I am bear =)
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LazyBear PRO liquid-illusions
2 years ago
lazy "bear"...*cough* *cough* ;)
+1 Reply
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