Bull trap? No - I called it a Cartel trap

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
6605 67
Hi All,

Welcome to the Taiwan Bear talk show again.

I have always been calling financial institutions and manipulators “The Whales”. Then I read something interesting last week which it suggests it’s called the “Cartel” instead of The Whales. If you would like to read about it, I will be posting the link on my Twitter shortly. Due to TV’s house rules, I cannot attach the link here.

It has confirmed my theories in which I have been telling others - the news does not affect the price - it’s simply a way of manipulation. Remember when I called the crash on SPX , right before it happened? Then, on my second TA on SPX , I said SPX is going to retrace to $2665 - $2707.37 and then drop again? Both my predictions followed through, from a pure TA perspective. If you would like to look at my 2x TA on the SPX crash, I have attached the links below.
People talked about news, what Trump said…blah blah blah. To me, it’s just pure TA. You think Trump is not making a fortune out of the crash?

Now, let’s come back to the chart on BTC . The two pumps happened in the last 5x candles look like they're just triggering people’s stop losses. The volume was low and if you look at the first circle in blue, after a long consolidation phase in which it formed a pennant (the smaller one), I assumed that quite many people placed their short positions on the break out of the pennant (circled in red) and has set their SL right above the pennant? Unfortunately for those people, BTC suddenly reversed back and went above the pennant and triggered their SL.

Because of the force, it triggered the 2nd set of SL. When the breakout happened on the bigger pennant to the downside, many people has placed their short positions on the break out. And I assumed those people set their SL right above the pennant as well. So, when the 1st SL got triggered, the price shoot up, and triggered the 2nd SL and caused BTC went above the EMA20, without much volume . Soon after, BTC got a little pump again and triggered the 3rd set of SL, right above the short term downtrend line (black).

So, what’s going to happen? If you look at my yellow box, BTC hit right on the 0.382 retrace and got rejected straight away, with no follow through. Also, I have included the mid-term downtrend line in grey. You can also notice the trend line coincides right on the 0.382 retrace which, adds another resistance level . However, in saying that, I assumed many people set their SL on their short positions right above the grey downtrend line? If BTC got a little pump again, it can triggered these SL and BTC can jump to the 0.236 retrace @ $7245.3 very quickly. And that is a crucial level to watch closely. If BTC happens to “close” a 4hr candle above that price level, I might place a few long positions and set my SL right below it. But I really can’t see that happening in this bear market.

The direction is unclear at the moment but I am still leaning towards bearish and I still think BTC will drop down to $4436.

If you like my TA, please don’t forget to "Like" :)

Taiwan Bear

Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.

Some tips for you:
- Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+)
- Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
- When you follow a trader on TV, you want to follow someone who looks at the big picture, not just counting EW. And that trader should identify a trend/pattern that you don’t see.
Apr 07
Comment: Just to show you how I drew the black and grey downtrend line.

Apr 07
Comment: Poor XRP. Yesterday's pump can't even get XRP above the 0.618 retrace.

It just shows how weak the market is. Probably only the HODLers are holding onto their XRP long positions.

This happens to LTC as well.

Apr 08
Comment: Some people's stop losses on their short positions got triggered, right above the grey trend line, without much volume (< EMA20). Soon after that, BTC retested the 0.382 retrace and got rejected.

It looks to me that the retrace of a downtrend has completed. If you are going long, watch out the 0.618 retrace @ $6831.4 & 0.786 retrace @ $6649.4 as if those levels don't hold, 6.4k will probably not be able to hold.

Apr 09
Comment: Dear followers, just to letting you know that I didn't forget about you. BTC dropped from my "No trading zone" to $6959 in the last few candles, then went back up to the no trading zone again.

By looking at the RSI across the Cryptos market, especially ETH is now @ 70, I think it will drop today if not, tomorrow.

Apr 09
Comment: ETH - RSI overbought + double top

Clicked on chart update and that is a nasty red candle.
TB are you laddering in from 6,100 to 4,400?
thank you my taiwan bear brother
i always enjoy your contents espeically your thoughts and precise and sharp analysis on crypto market leaders like bitcoin, ethereums and ripples etc,,,

i truly enjoy your ideas because you are correct most of the time, not 100%, nobody is 100% right cause we are not god, but unlike many other traders here
you never are emotional and tell us only what you see and read and most likely happen in some near future
thanks for this

if possible, can you please everyday or at least once every a couple of days update or post your ideas on crypto market leaders?
it does help me understand what's going on and whats going to happen in the future,

i personally think and hope btc go down to 3k if not 4k lol
casue i am a poor man :( the only way i can accumulate as many as possible is only when btc and eth and xrp ltc go crash :)

but i dont know how to read or understand charts, so i need your bright analysis on them as often as possible
thank you my taiwan bear brother
+2 Reply
@leorio, Hi Leorio, thanks for your comment. That was a very nice thing to hear. Like you said, my TA is not 100% right all the time and that is why I want to make sure that I am at least 60-80% confident before I give an update. If its just a flag, h&s, trendline broken, I am sure many people can identify the pattern himself/herself. Simply identifying a possible pattern is certainly not a TA and the pattern can fail easily. So, what I am always trying to do, is to consider all the patterns and indicators and come up with the most plausible scenario and present the idea to my readers.

I certainly don't mind updating the chart or TA more regularly, however, at the same time I prefer not to confuse the readers. As you know, Cryptos are very hard to predict.

If you have been following me, I have mentioned in one of my TAs - I can't guarantee how BTC is going to bounce between each Fib level, but you should be able to benefit from my initial and ultimate target. And for this reason, I would like to have more confirmation before I post my idea when BTC is bouncing between each fib level.

I will see how other readers respond to your questions too. Or, you can PM me and I will give you an update.

Right now, my target is still $4436. But I will place most of my positions around 4.7-4.8k.

Taiwan Bear
+2 Reply
leorio Taiwan_Bear
@Taiwan_Bear, thank you my taiwan brother
so 4436 the bottom it is most likely, but in case it bounces and make an upward reversal before it hits 4436, you place under between 4.7~4.8 K which makes very much sense to me cool cool
however bro i have another question
actually i have many questions
okay its very unorganized but if you could , please share your thoughts with me!

Q1) when do you think BTC finally hit your target level something like 4436 dollars and makes a reversal upward? like not exact date but like month, june or maybe september or maybe around fall next year?? lol

Q2) when BTC finally out of wood and goes upward, do you think it's gonna skyrocket immediately all the way up to 20K which is previous all time high? goes up so fast that not many people got enough time to buy low? ( if there's any sort of market manipulation by cartel or anything, cause you know, big market players wanna buy low and they want to make sure that individual investors around the world like me buy high, right?)
or do you think even though when BTC makes a reversal upward, it's gonna be a rocky road to previous ATH, like many ups and many downs, and when it finally does hit 20k, then it's gonna skyrocket?

Q3) as you know, so many people, I mean just tons of people literally, so many of them around the world, everybody is waiting for a reversal of any crypto, btc eth xrp etc.... it's different from say june or july last year. I think crypto got so much exposed to the general public sometime around November or December in 2017 for the first time in the history of cryptos.

and what I know is that, maybe myself included to some degree, not so much, I am from Korea btw, EVERYBODY(waiting for reversal upward of crypto market) is talking about buying WHICH ALT COIN. No people in my country talk about Bitcoin.

the reason is simple. they all believe bitcoin is not gonna make them rich quick. however, Ripple or Cardano or say Tron or...Eos and some other altcoins that may have some potential 100x gains or even 1000x gains you know. if you quickly search on coinmarketcap for those coins and their markets, KRW pairs are all top 1.

and I know that if cartel or whales are truly in existance, I just don't think they are going to make Every individual rich, because you know, there's no such thing as Free and Easy money.

i kinda babbled but my question is, do you think in your opinion, BTC will be better bet in terms of risk-return ration in 2018 and years to come or Do you also incline to 99% of Korean people that Alts are much better positions than BTC?

here, people say, " I know, btc must go up first, and when it consolidates, Alts will have party, but i don't wanna put my fiat money in BTC, but only in ALTs,, cause other people will buy BTC which would make the price of it go higher with less X gain potential"

I personally am going to diverse my portfolio and most importantly decide which one to buy first and then this and then that, like
If BTC upward does happen sometime this year, I am all in BTC first, and wait until it again stops going up maybe making new all time high, and that's when I will sell all my BTC and buy other alts that I think are gonna boom, but it's gonna be really later, casue we are still in downturn,
I wanna hear your strategy about this :)

Q4) you know, I watch many youtube videos mostly from USA, I only understand English (Korean is not useful in crypto market so lol),
and there are some, not many, great crypto youtubers I truly enjoy watching like I enjoy your contents here.
and some say, 2018 or maybe 2019 in the near future, it's going to be bubble burst of ALTs, NOT BTC.
even though he himself says he is not a bitcoin maximalist, there're just way toooo many coins in the market that don't even do a single damn job.
so basically hundreds of Shit coins maybe even more than a thousand of them. and he says, when it does happen, all those money in ALT coin markets, instead of cashing out, will all go into Bitcoin and thus making serious high of BTC price. ( he said that maybe only about 50 coins will survive and more than 1200 coins will disappear in 2018 or 2019, like Centra recently on binance, disappear suddenly)

do you think this argument has any sense? or do you think, 1300 different altcoins will all survive and it's just market cycle that we are seeing and when btc goes up, everything will eventually go up too like in 2017.

Q5) for novice traders like me, I am really horrible at trading, I always bought high and sold low in 2017, shit!
when BTC finally turns uptrend, do you think I should buy and sell or do you think it's better if I just buy BTCs at 4500(bottom) and just wait until BTC makes a new ATH and sell all of BTCs that moment ?

Q6) do you think Altcoins-BTC pairs are more accurate? or Altcoins-Fiat(USD) pair charts are more useful?
even though i am a novice, I looked at many charts on cryptowatch. and I saw something, when BTC is crazy bull run, almost every Altcoin-btc values go down quite seriously, and when BTC sort of consolidates, ALTs boom.
for example, Etherum and Ripple, but when I saw ETH-USD and XRP-USD charts last year, not so much of downtrend, unlike ETH-BTC and XRP-BTC charts.
I am very confused about this.
if you look at ETH-BTC chart last year, the price goes down down down down from June 2017 till December 2017 when finally ETH starts boom,
but if you look at ETH-USD chart the same time frame, really ETH goes up and down and come back up again and consolidates alot and finally booms in Dec,

so how should I make my strategy to maximaize profits this year If markets play out like this the same as last year.

I had many confusing and unorganized questions but if you could answer me some and share your ideas with me,
i would very much appreciate
thanks bear bro :)
ogoz23 leorio
@leorio, leorio I have 2 questions and 1 statement for you?


Q2) How long did it take you to write all this?

Statement 1) I don't care, we follow Taiwan_Bear here so go somewhere else.
leorio ogoz23
@ogoz23, loool
Hi Taiwan Bear. I appreciate your TA very much. in your last comment your wrote "if you are going long" then refered to Fib levels below. Didn't you mean SHORT instead of LONG? Thanks !
@ecescab, what I meant by retrace of a downtrend is that the overall trend is still going down. The retrace to 7.1k was just a retrace before the drop IMO. So, no, I meant those who has long positions need to watch closely if it drops from here
nice post. no non-sense.
@DrJLT, Thanks again :)
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