LewisGlasgow

Bitcoin - Bear Market Comparison

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Traders, I believe you will like the facts put forward in today's analysis on the weekly chart for bitcoin , it's a simplistic overview of what I see happening right now.

My main focus is the comparison between the current and previous bear market, there are a lot of similarities between both cycles that we can use to our advantage.

Firstly I'd like to talk about the overall decline in both market cycles.

During 2013 to 2015 bitcoin dropped from $1170 to $150 resulting in a decline of 87% which lasted 413 days.

During 2017 to 2019 bitcoin dropped from $20000 to $3140 resulting in a decline of 84.40% which lasted 364 days.

The percentage decrease and timespan are extremely similar in both cases, you'll find an in-depth calculation of bitcoins movements from my post regarding cyclical measurements below.



Going forward if I find this would be helpful to other traders I may revise and update the measurements shown in "Bitcoin - Cyclical Measurements" so they are more relevant in the current bitcoin market.

Moving onto my next focus point in today's analysis... The re-test of weekly resistance following the recently found "market bottom" which can be seen in both cycles as shown in my analysis.

Let's take a look at the price action from 2015 to provide more detail on what I'm really looking at.



As you can see this level held extremely well prior to price declining to $150, this support turned key resistance prevented a breakout during early July 2015, which was quickly followed up by a decline of 37.70% lasting 49 days. Only after this decline did price experience a breakout and continuation to the upside which resulted in a 2 year bull market and ultimately leading to the current all time high of $20,000 after years of progression.

When we take a look at the current price action for bitcoin , it holds a similar structure.



The resistance bitcoin is now testing is much stronger than before, this support level held for 9 months with at least 5 separate tests in which it finally broke during November 2018. For anyone looking at bitcoin I would pay close attention to the next few weekly candlesticks , mainly their closing prices and figure out what it is suggesting short-term.

It is highly likely bitcoin will fall short at this weekly resistance level and history will repeat itself, the bulls will be put back in their place (for now) and we'll experience a minor correction either to the support trendline or a similar decline to the previous cycle... 37.70%?



A smaller correction to the trendline would result in a decline of 20% or less which is unlikely, if a sell-off does happen it's likely it'll break that area and push further towards $4,000.

As mentioned this all depends on the price action in the following weeks.

This post is open to discussion, feel free to leave your own analysis below.
Comment: Quick update for all those following my analysis, this is the current situation on the 1h chart... If we see a break of structure and a close below support (referring to the rising wedge formation) then we will see price push towards $5900 followed by $5650.

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So my original idea from January 4, 2019 at which many people rolled their eyes and commented "oh no, never ever" was probably right!
Today it looks like this. We will see...
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The ratio of BTCUSD shorts vs longs on Bitfinex has hit 1.7 ... it has never been this high from 2017 until now (previous peak was 1.5) When it was 1.2, there was a short squeeze that moved the price +$1000 in one hour.

We could see a short squeeze again.

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Makes sense. It's what I was thinking. If we don't dump this week and remain above 6000 then this bear market is most probably finished.
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Thanks, Great article!
What do we believe if we close above???
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Thanks for your insights :) Really appreciate it, it helps me out.
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LewisGlasgow Plaxidoeda
@Plaxidoeda, you're welcome!
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Nice work
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@longmoney, appreciate it!
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Thanks for the followup comments. Great comparison.
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