I think bitcoin may be making a cycle low soon so I will attempt to long a countertrade. Looking for a trade near a double bottom under $6650 and then potentially lower, so I will likely take multiple trades but will need to see a start of a bear market rally and I'll be quick to take profit and move my stops.
I forgot to mention today is a TD 9 so it would be a good day to find a low. No guarantee of course. But decent confluence of cycles and TD.
Countertrading a trend is risky. Be careful.
Comment
⋅
Also wanted to add that this $6300 area would be interesting because it was a monthly close last fall, multiple monthly opens and obviously part of a major support area. Would be a another good spot and give us a clear cycle low in the short term without totally dumping below 6k
Comment
⋅
We now have a clear new low late in the cycle. Since the low was fast and generated a big bounce, I took a trade here long. The key area is that red line, the previous low. This is a trade to attempt to enter the new cycle using short term TA. This trade idea is based on the potential for this to be a stop run below the lows so I want to see this trade hold the red line. My stop is at today's low
The risk her is that these pumps that immediately sell off have a tendency to leak down and lead to new lows so if that happens, I get out of the trade and wait for the next opportunity.
Here's where I see the market headed between now and the halving. -->
BeniGo
⋅
So, what is now your guess? The bounce was pretty clear but I don't quite like the flat trading lately. Could you give some light on my doubts? I am inside a long trade since 6890.
rzmb44
⋅
@BeniGo, We are getting range trading with no trend. I have been day trading and don't have a swing trade open. Basically a trendless market doesn't give me a good edge. $6890 looks like a good long so far today. The moveup had a spike but most importantly had follow through with a higher high. Previous spikes were sold off and slowly leaked to origin. So a good close today over $7200 with some follow through to end the week strong would set up a potential trend long.
Either we got back and test the range high at $7800 then move down into a cycle low or hit that $8200 area with the 200 EMA. After that...I really don't know. I'll do an update.