darobsta

BTC - surely it's different this time?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The hype is over for now. The moon kids have disappeared from the forums. The mainstream news is quiet. Bitcoin may be crawling back into its hole to lick its wounds for a while.

We have already dropped 70% off All Time High, just like the last mega bubble. If we were to follow the same pattern as last time, we would drop around 85% and end up around 3k and it will take a while to get there.

Of course Ii realise things are never the same, and these lines are just drawn to fit the narrative, but this is just food for thought.
Mar 29
Comment:
Jun 13
Comment: Not looking very different this time (so far!)

Thinking we may bounce at 4.9 and then down to 2.8 - 3.2
Jun 13
Comment: And thinking this, long term ....
Jun 13
Comment:
Nov 17
Comment: Taking much longer than I thought.
Nov 27
Comment: Turns out it wasn't different this time!! :-O Not much change from original projection ... similar targets :-

Turns out it wasn't different this time!! :-O

Not much change from original projection ... similar targets :-

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still active ?
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darobsta ahmedshalaby
@ahmedshalaby, I think so. But I am ready if not.
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This is a very convincing chart. My question to you is this, if history repeats itself at this accuracy wouldn't you and everyone who patterned out this way be Billionares? I thought the fun of this entire thing was the fact that past does not mean future or everyone would be millionaires?
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darobsta A5gamakatsu
@A5gamakatsu, yes it is a convincing chart. In a way, I drew it to be like this. I could have drawn it many other ways and got different results. It's not about accuracy, it's about zooming out and getting a different perspective from a different time frame. All the best!
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@darobsta, Watcha thing now? :)
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darobsta A5gamakatsu
@A5gamakatsu, no change in thoughts. I think we will see a big bounce at 6k, there will be lots of twitchy fingers looking/hoping for the double bottom "confirmation" of the low. I will probably ride that train, but I won't get comfortable on it.

The big dumps followed by the bounces are the players making money,.. the slow grind down as we retrace those dumps are the bulls becoming bears. That's my take, anyway.

Where do you think BTC is headed?
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