Price of bitcoin drifts lower towards 45 000 USD on Sunday to Monday night. We continue to be bearish on BTCUSD. Our short term price target remains 40 000 USD.
Technical analysis We continue to observe price pattern in which Bitcoin increases in price over the weekend and then sells off on a Monday and during the week. It is visible that price exited its gap observable in the futures market (to the downside). We think this phenomenon suggests more selling pressure is on a way. RSI and Stochastic are very bearish at the moment. MACD is also bearish and it needs to be observed in the following days. We will look for MACD's crossover below 0 points to the bearish zone. We expect this to further bolster bearish case for BTCUSD. ADX hoovers around 24 points suggesting that trend of intermediate strength is present and building up in momentum. Because of these technical reasons we continue to be bearish on BTCUSD.
BTC1! graph (continuous futures market): Above is depiction of BTC1! graph (continuous futures market). It is visible that price broke to the downside from gap zone.
Support and resistance levels Closest support sits around 43 800 USD while major support level appears around 28 800 USD. Closest resistance sits around 53 000 USD and then around 60 000 USD. Then major resistance level appears around 65 000 USD.
Here is weekly graph of BTCUSD: Weekly timeframe confirms that downtrend in BTCUSD is building up.
Here is our first idea on BTCUSD we published on 25th August 2021: Here we noted that we had expected BTCUSD to peak around 53 000 USD before downtrend was to resume. We also layed out bearish case for BTCUSD.
Disclaimer: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Trade closed: target reached
⋅
Short term price target of 40 000 USD was reached overnight.
@Hambooger, Thank you so much for so many kind replies. I appreciate it.
Hambooger
⋅
@Tradersweekly, I've found that when a trader makes logical decisions to go against the majority grain, it usually is for good reason if they know their TA well enough. I know I've been against the grain a while but I've also been wrong many times about how bearish moves will happen, even if getting price targets correct, time frame or something else doesn't always make sense! So its good to have other opinions :) I hope your day is well
Tradersweekly
⋅
@Hambooger, Without mistakes there is no learning.
@Tradersweekly, Are you also tracking the descending triangle on the weekly tf or do you consider it to be a symmetrical triangle (continuation pattern for bullrun)?
Sorry for the rough drawing skills, i'm still kinda new to drawing on charts.
Tradersweekly
⋅
@edgarpoe, Well, to be honest I am not seeing triangles you mentioned as they fail to meet certain requirements needed for triangle formation.
edgarpoe
⋅
@Tradersweekly, I respect that, I will google about triangle chart patterns more later, but just for now what/which criteria are not being met?
Tradersweekly
⋅
@edgarpoe, Thank you for understanding. I think it is important to note that people have tendency to see patterns where they are not. There were several good studies on this subject like Skinner's study on pigeon stimuli and behavior patterns of these pigeons. Triangle is constructed by 5 reversal points (with touches to the upper and lower bound). For example that one formation that occured in 2018 is missing touches to the upper bound. Also triangle formation usually takes way shorter to form than 6 months. Second pattern is still forming so I have no issue with that one. If you would like I can write education idea on this subject and I can include more patterns.