MrRenev
Education

Bitcoin: The end of an Era

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Not many are able to think long term and realize this, but the cryptocurrency markets have already topped.

With summer ending soon, the next 50% price cut might be only a few weeks away.

Good news! I was (finally) able to verify and unfreeze an account with a crypto exchange and cashed out most of my money out of this MLM scheme.

Now, I have no skin in the game. This means no conflit of interest. I may have been biased in the past (such as when my winning short at 4k was a loser because of Bitmex funding and I posted short ideas even thought I knew - and said it - the price would go up and formed what I called in 2018 a 6 month to 1 year bull market within a larger secular bear market).

A few weeks only after US president and several congressmen and white house members publicly announced they have no love for Bitcoin and crypto, as well as French finance politicians (including the president of the G8), Europe central bank , and a few months after the NYAG started fighting the Tether scam, and a congressman (rep. Sherman), and we learned that North Korea used crypto to finance nuclear weapons, catch your breath :p, the white house has published 2 advisories where they explain that Bitcoin has been massively used to buy foreign drugs "precursor chemicals or completely synthesized narcotics primarily sourced from China", China with which they are at war with (trade & political war).
The white house is officially asking financial institutions (the advisories were sent to several financial institutions and digital payments companies) to collect crypto data.

But it does not end here. Even if criminals do not rush to panic sell before companies involved in crypto start watching them very closely, the price of Bitcoin is not safe yet.
Steven Mnuchin, of the U.S Department of Treasury, stated that the authority could ultimately prevent Bitcoin from becoming an “equivalent of Swiss-numbered bank accounts.”. In layman terms this means Bitcoin dies.

Sources: Start here
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/up...
Also, media/search engines.

Bitcoin now only thing left going: The ever so praised mighty "halving".

I believe it very possible that the price of Bitcoin remains above $3000 until this halving that every one is waiting for.
And after this, BTC is done for.

On top of that let's not forget that japan casinos are opening in mid 2020. And maybe more to come (online casinos?).
Japan represents 20% of the world financial wealth/investing power (while the USA have 25% and europe 30%).

Let me remind you how 2017 raging bull market started:


It works both ways!


Also, more generally, the entirety of BTC existance happened during a massive economical bull market.
And now the world stock markets are at levels unseen since 1929. Income inequality is even greater than 1920s 1930s.
Socialism is on the rise. Extreme right too. Bonds rates in the world are negative for the first time in history.

We are heading towards a great depression. People DO NOT speculate on crazy 50% a day move markets in these times.
Especially the rich - which concentrate 90% of the world wealth - they got rich by being careful and "cheap".
It is hilarous to me that "crypto believers" that know the rich for being the most cheap people on the planet, also believe they will suddenly go wild and buy cryptos.

I would also like to bring your attention to those charts (wall street cheat sheet on 2 timeframes - this is also how 2014 & 2018 behaved):


The sentiment at the top of this 2019 bubble was the exact same as the 2013 top one, and the same as the 2017 one.

Most big crypto advocates are blatant sociopaths. They have a history of lying and only caring about themselves. Every one knows about it.
And yet, BTC investors all drunk the Kool-Aid. Because they were promised immense riches and greed took over.

There are 2 kinds of people:
- Lottery ticket enthusiasts that fantacize about how much they could make and what they would buy with that money.
- Those that can take a step back and look objectively at the facts and the charts, and respect the views of experts with decades of experience and great track records.

Just watch how every one is absolutely convinced without the shadow of a doubt the worse is behind them, and how wrong time will prove they were.

Can BTC go back to 14k? Yes. But in the next 2 to 3 years will BTC be priced in the thousands or even more? NO.

Don't be a fool. The end of BTC is close.
Comment: Textbook denial...

Hordes of bagholders are telling tradingview they will unsuscribe or move to competition because they tweeted this post.
For all they know they were mocking me.
Pressuring a company because they tweet an opposite opinion ONCE (after showing bullish ones countless times).
Shows you what kind of people are involved in this ponzi scheme. Go figure...

Some more news that was released at the same time as the white house one, that I did not mention:
The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) blacklisted Bitcoin, Litecoin Addresses of Chinese ‘Drug Kingpins’.

This will dramatically reduce BTC use as criminals will want to avoid it now.
But will that impact the price? I am not so sure as BTC price now is not associated at all with its adoption, but with pure gambling.

Bitcoin bagholders logic is pretty questionnable...

0.1%: We think the price has topped.

BTC baggies, 99.9%: We are contrarians, we think the price is going up.



BTC price: Remains within a few dollars of the line for 3 weeks, closes just under it on 2 weekly candles, daily candle closes on it to the very dollar.

Me: 50 lines of text, sources, a few additional charts, explaining why BTC topped. Trendline represents 1% of it all.

BTC baggies: Pff you are a troll that line is subjective therefore BTC will go up because last time they said. I didn't even read a word you said.

It's pretty common to be at the bottom when every one is bullish. Well known fact.





How they behave goes in the direction of this idea.
Remember Tesla a few months ago at $300?
Remember Bitcoin at 16k back in early 2018?

Since the BTC club loves analog charts "2018 compared to 2013" "2019 compared to 2015", they should also love "2019 compared to 2018" or "2019 compared to 2014". Funny how I see plenty of forced "fractal" charts telling the price will go up, but nothing saying it goes down...




Clearly... textbook denial...
Comment: There sure are alot of people denying everything I said. DENYING it.

This time it's different:


Railways Bubble had an echo bubble, price retraced more than 78.6%.
It made a lower high at ~7000.
And then it went back to 4500.
And then 3000.
And then 1000.
And then zero ;)

Railways bubbles was different from the previous canal bubbles (4 of them, hey guess what? Just like Bitcoin: 2011 2013 2017 2019 FOUR bubbles).
And the canal bubble was different than the south sea bubble.
The south sea bubble was different than the tulip bubble.
The tulip bubble was different from the commodities & currency bubbles of the 500-1500 period.
Those bubbles were all different than the previous one, and different from the roman bubbles.

There is not much we remember from past bubbles. People are extremely good at forgetting these painful experiences. There is a little bit of info in the investoramnesia website.

Some bubbles I learn about from an old forgotten book, and they are mentionned NOWHERE else.
How many have we completely forgotten?

One day I'd love to make a website/company that does research into that.


Bitcoin is a complete joke. It is so blatently obvious, it is incredible.
The future will not understand how such a thing could happen.
It is not exactly a ponzi, it is not exactly an MLM, not exactly a pyramid scheme.
A new kind of scam and people of unbelievably (seriously, I don't get how it is possible) low intellect think "oh well if it's not exactly a ponzi then I am safe".

Of course, the future will see it as obvious that Bitcoin is a joke.
But most people will be hindsight experts.
As obvious as it is today, very few realize it.
This must be a sick joke by god...

If I sold my nose hair for $5,000 (limited supply btw) no one will take me seriously.
If I sold a paint drawing for $5,000 a piece, no one will take me seriously.
If I sold the right to a word I invented for $5,000, no one will take me seriously.
If I sold planets in a faraway galaxy for $5,000 a ton, no one will take me seriously.

And yet. If I were to sell a number in a database that gives absolutely no rights for $5,000 the number, people would sell their houses to be able to buy as much as they can.

It's even more irrational than tulips! It's completely insane!
And like every exponential growth, it is capped.
And we have reached the stationary phase.
In layman terms, this means that we ran out of idiots to buy.

Wake up!? It's so crazy and ridiculous to buy these numbers in a database.
And you can throw all the technical words you want, repeat as much as you want "you don't understand it" and "this time it is different", I can 100% guarentee to you with 100% certainty, your precious little ponzi is not going to break mathematical laws.



Don't say you weren't warned.

The emperor is naked.
Comment: Crypto clowns: "Crypto is awesome because it will change the world. You can't ban decentralized crypto. Every one has a voice with Bitcoin"
Me: "Lets put that to the test. I am bearish."
Crypto clowns: "Losers! This must be banned! How can trading view allow this I will switch to another service!"

Ah but what I am saying, lets listen to crypto ponzi victims.
When FA looks bad, it is important to only look at TA "very boolish formation".
When TA is bad, it is important to only look at FA "greatest technology".

FA: What I said in this idea + many others.
News ==> And recently, a judged has ordered satoshi to give half a million BTC to the IRS. I am sure they won't dump, will they? :D And a dead guy family are going to get bigger amounts of BTC in their hands, with a basis cost of zero.

Ah, but the TA.






Echo bubble...

When both TA and FA look bad... What then?

Crypto fool answer: "Ah, but the banks".

TA and nonsense half truths and emotional affirmations are going to look great when millions of BTC get dumped by the IRS and the satoshi family. HAHA.

Oh, and btw
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-2...

Preparing For Financial Apocalypse: Insiders Are Selling "$600 Million Of Stock Per Day In August"

The greatest depression you have ever seen is going to happen.
Stock market got back to ath, but BTC only retraced 78.6%.

Does anyone really believe BTC will survive the financial apocalypse? HAHA!
21% of students were stupid enough to use their student loans to buy crypto scams.
How will there be more and more buyers when at best a recession starts and we begin the process of develeraging (and the debt bubble collapses).
Comment: I am going to make an idea about reversal patterns since that's what I do 99% of the time.

Bitcoin similar situation to TR Lira:



Except with BTC it is the "bull market is back" FOMO (unlike Lira FUD) that has slowly faded off as expected.
But the result is the same.
People get euphoric or "anti-euphoric", exagerate, go full insane, and then we have an ABC:



Evertiem.







Can take alot of forms:




I knew of some stocks valued at hundreds of thousands of $, that went to fractions of a cent, but cannot find reeee.

Of course no one wants to remember that so it's almost impossible to find, no one ever talks about it, people involved try to forget... Same story every time. Losers.
Comment: The price will be contained in this cone from experience:


I would like to predict the future.
5 years from now:

"Bitcoin went down very slowly with recoveries, it was very slow & vicious, nothing I could do"
"Who knew these whales would dump"
"BTC only went down because of the great depression, better it SURVIVED, that's pretty damn good. Unlike your bank ABC. Bullish".
Comment: Big surprise the price is still sidewaysing in the same area.
Probably will take till october or november for the big crash.
Followed by another big crash in late december.

I wonder if the IRS will get hold of half a million BTC as has been ordered?
I check Bitcoin difficulty and it's funny, since ~5k the price has doubled and so has the difficulty.
There has been a bubble of miners.
Difficulty peaked around june 2018 last time then dropped and went back to higher highs with "the bull market is back".

US miners average price is around 10,000 now. When the price slips they'll have to sell to get their costs back. Just as with 5-6k... Same story...

Rince & repeat...

But worry not! Big money is stepping in. Institutions are buying.

Three days after launch, the VanEck bitcoin trust for institutional investors has reportedly managed to issue a whopping 1 (one) basket. It has 4 bitcoins or $41,400 in assets under management. Massive.

Crazy!
Comment: This was your last chance to buy above 10,000 :)
Comment: Persistence does not care about rejection and reversal.
Persistence does not care about ridicule.
Persistence does not need public approval.
Persistence does not need a slap on the back.
Persistence does not care about being politically correct.
Persistence does not look at the mistakes of yesterday and hangs onto them.
Persistence looks at 10,000 coming against you from every direction and does not retreat, but fights back.
Persistence never never never gives up and turns you from a failure to the winner, and the faceless soulless army of sheeple from amused and dismissive to envious jealous and angry.
Comment: HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2019/09/dutch-...

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Comment:
Comment: Happy week!

Bitcoin is now either:

- In a bull market with the price going higher than 20k
- In a bear market longer than all the previous ones put together

Unless it consolidates for eternity but simply NO.



If Bitcoin goes under $3000, will the baggies compare Bitcoin to "last time" even thought all of the "last times" combined lasted less than this time?
Comment: The mighty bull market is about to start with Bakkt futures launching tomorrow.
The price won't go down 85% like with CME futures because this time it's different!

Comment: Well, Bakkt have been open 2 hour 30 ago and what a success!
I was clearly wrong. You got me guys. Institutional money is piling in.

On the monthly contract an impressive 8 Bitcoins have been traded.

https://www.theice.com/products/72035464...

There is no data for the daily contracts, lets see how it goes
https://www.theice.com/products/72035483...


Brend has been open for less than 5 hours, and already a volume of close to 5000 contract, and 1 contract is for 1000 barrels (so 65 grans).
https://www.theice.com/products/219/Bren...

I can't find anything else open, idk when it opens exactly.
I can guarentee than even orange juice futures will do better than clowncoin.

Dw, institutions are suddenly going to get interested one day if you wish for it hard enough :D
And magical money will fall out of the sky and you will all live long healthy wonderful lives, without ever making any effort!

CME futures was a fail, LN was a fail, consensus was a fail, bakkt is a fail.
Go next right? Now there will be a bull market because of "THE HALVING".
Oh mighty halving. This is different thought. It always is...
Comment: The day ended with whooping volumes of 64 on the monthly contract and 1 (as suspected) on the daily one.

Big money is piling up to get their Bitcoins.

The ones that bought in anticipation to bakkt success must be feeling pretty smart right now...
Comment: Oh no it has started. Institutions have begun buying.
BTC daily volume soared 100%, a stampede is happening, and is now at 2 Bitcoins.
Institutions are fighting to be first to buy their Bitcoin (singular).
Comment: I have seen this before...

Comment: Oh Oh.

Comment: Bitcoin daily futures volume is back to 1.
New day hasn't opened.
What is this?
Did someone misclic? XD
50% of the volume was a misclic? HAHAHA! It's really over for this ridiculous clown magic internet bean.

Posted a new idea about this failing ponzi scheme. It is over.
Comment: OH OH!

Comment: Great store of value!


At least we can learn something from this.
Comment: Great secure market!

Comment: Ponzi coin bounce in the 3-4k area Dec 2019
Ponzi coin reaches 1000-1800 by Q1 2021

Remember this.
Comment: Briefly explaining what an echo bubble is:

"When the majority of people extrapolate the past in a bull cycle and expect the future to be the same, they usually are right and we are pretty early in the cycle"
- Warren Dalio
Copycat



First one was banned. Let’s see the fate of this one.
Reply
tradingview should add a dislike button. thats the worst analysis in ages, you write so much shit, for nothing.
+1 Reply
I might agree on your arguments - but I don't agree how you draw your lines...
+2 Reply
I almost wish this was the end of an era so at least we won't have to see your parasitic analysis every few months lol
+2 Reply
We already saw "Psychology of a Market Cycle" during 2018 and 2019. Do most of people think "We just need to cool off for the next rally" now ? Many people sold their coins and lost bunch of money. ALTs dropped 90-95 percent. You continue tell that we are at "Complacency" after Euphoria" ? Anger and depression was at 3k. Disbelief will be obvious after if bitcoin drops to 6k or to "lower low" 3k. You are the one helping people to have this psychology "Disbelief". HODL and long term reasonable targets will win. Whales need more investors and huge wave will come on 2020 with economic crisis.

"Fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." Warren Buffett says.
+1 Reply
please explain how Bitcoin ran out of buyers when the accumulation/distribution indicator is showing high levels of accumulation even with declining prices.
+1 Reply
we get one more leg down, maybe 61.8, itll be ATL greed fear index breaking when btc @3k
Reply
were @ fair value w/ S2F and 50% fib. hash and trans rate still at ATH. can it go lower? sure, any opportunity to buy more cheaper. i agree with you
Reply
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