ianrdouglas

BTC: On track to 80k?

ianrdouglas Updated   
PHEMEX:BTCUSD   None
This is an unconventional chart.

First, it is inverted. I also inverted the colors of the candles to match.

I have become interested in crash structures, and seven-wave structures in general, which I see repeated on multiple timeframes, whether in uptrends or downtrends.

These seven-wave structures are similar to traditional Elliot motive waves, but I find it easier to count when there are seven and not five.

In this chart I thought I'd take a look at the whole 2020-21 BTC bull run, from the low (here high) of March 2020 through until now.

In seven-wave crash structures Wave 5 down is always pronounced. The liquidation wick of 18 April was an example of a Wave 5 down. Likewise the drop of 13 May.

Wave 5 is then followed by a roll up, before the final Wave 7 down.

Within Wave 7, things get really fascinating, because the seven-wave structure is repeated. Indeed, in every seventh wave, the seven-wave structure is repeated.

It's like an infinite spiral, or two mirrors opposed where the image repeats over and over, ever smaller, within seventh waves.

So within the seventh wave, there are seven waves. And within the seventh of those waves, another seven, with seven more in the seventh wave, and so on.

At any rate, Wave 6 usually retraces between the 0.382 and the 0.5 of the Fibonacci sequence.

From Wave 5 you can estimate where the base will come in by placing the 0.786 of the Fibonacci on it, with 0 being the last major high or low.

What would this tell us about where we are right now with BTC.

If valid at all, it says the base is almost in.

In Elliot Wave theory, Wave 4 should not go higher than Wave 1. Wave 1, in Elliot terms, is the January ATH.

Wave 6, in my terms, is now on the 0.5 Fibonacci, just short of that January ATH.

So what I think is going to happen is a reversal, and BTC pushing now to 80k.

We're just waiting for the market to fully confirm the base. I had it at 41.5. It is possible to see a wick into 40 or 39. But I don't see 33 coming before 80 comes first.

We'll find out together.

Feel free to comment.
Order cancelled:
19 May 2021 16:38:24: We'll just have to see what BTC will do, but you'd have to say — from a technical standpoint — that price went to a place it shouldn't go for the bull run or uptrend to remain intact, if the Elliot wave count here is valid.

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