SimpleCryptoLife
Long

BTC to launch next phase from 9k or 7.2k

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin loves what I call four-and-a-half wave corrections, ABCDE correction waves where it's so bullish that it never completes the fifth wave.

In the larger view from 2017 to now, we've either completed a three-wave ABC correction, in which case we should crack 10k any day now (more below), or we're going for a 4.5 wave correction, pictured in the main chart. Or perhaps something else will happen that I don't have a pattern handy for.

The large 4.5 wave correction implies that we fail to take or hold above the 10k psychological level and fall down again to *roughly* halfway down the big triangle.
Of course, drawing trend lines is an art, not a science. I drew what looks good to me, using log scale.


I've drawn the target box from the midline, just under the 0.5 retrace at 6800, up to the 0.382 retrace around 7600. I've drawn the retrace from the base of my meme triangle, not the bottom of the wick (the extreme depth of which I think was exceptional, not technical). Anywhere in here would make sense for a bounce, at this scale. The middle of the target box is just under 7200.

However, I think the smaller version is just as likely to play out. In this view there is no D. The large correction was complete at C, the flash crash of March, and now we are simply consolidating under significant diagonal and horizontal resistance.

The following chart shows exactly the same pattern playing out but at a smaller scale.

For the target box, I've chosen some horizontal support/resistance lines (again, more art than science). The point is we should break the local low but not hit the bottom of the triangle.

Well, that's all, folks. I just thought it would be fun to see how these two identical patterns could play out. I'm pretty sure one or the other will do, and then, finally, we go up.

Comments

I will bre reacting and not predicting, as usual, but here is my view
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SimpleCryptoLife transparent-fx
@transparent-fx, thanks for your comment. I like that your analysis seems to be impartial of any market bias. You can't really argue with the basic "short a retest of broken support" and "long a retest of broken resistance", however, you'd better be at your computer and hope Bitcoin gives you a retest, because often it does *not* for major moves ;-)
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