In this analysis I want to talk about the possibility of Bitcoin going to 100k this year. This is a speculative analysis, but still based on real-world macro. Take it with a grain of salt.
Bitcoin going to 100k in the middle of a banking and inflation crisis, with a FED that's increasing the interest rates? I would've said it's impossible. Not only that, but it's in stark contrast with the usual 4-year halving cycles.
However, something has changed over the last months. In March, during the Silicon Valley Bank's crisis, we saw a massive bullish move. This had to do with the fact that people lost confidence in (regional) banks, and decided to get self-custody over their own money and buy Bitcoin (and gold). Since then, BTC has been trading bullish alongside Gold, hedging against the risk of further banking failures.
More banks have gone under over the last few days. Signature Bank and First Republic bank went down and had to be sold and/or saved. 3/4 of the biggest banks that ever went under, went under in 2023.
While the stock markets sold off over the last few days, BTC gained strength. Most notable was the reaction after the interest rate hike yesterday. The SP500 fell from a cliff, whilst Bitcoin saw a huge move upwards.
Check out the analysis below where I go more into detail on why this seemingly inverse relationship exists:
Albeit a small probability, I think that the idea of BTC going to 100k this year is not even that far-fetched. In my eyes, the banking sector is far from safe, especially now that the FED has increased the interest rates yet again and is very unlikely to reduce the rates in the coming months. More banks failing means more risk to your money, means more people buying BTC and gaining self-custody over their own money.
And yes, more banks are failing as we speak. PacWest Bancorp has seen a 75% drop since the first of May.
Smaller, regional banks falling are bullish, but won't get BTC to 100k. There is a possibility of the largest banks failing, think JPMorgan or Bank of America. And if they do, we can experience a massive influx of buying that we've never seen before, purely based on fear.
In normal circumstances, the FED will aggressively cut the interest rates and start printing money to safe the banks. They can't really do that anymore because it will cause inflation. However, they most likely will because saving one of the largest US banks is going to be more important than inflation, at least in the short-term.
In case you enjoyed this analysis, please give it a like. Feel free to share your thoughts below 🙏.
100k will happen one day, but for now, we are going lower IMO:
Tradersweekly
⋅
Sorry, I could not disagree more. It just does not make much sense to me if the economy is headed into recession. Anyways, thanks for publishing.
MachiavelliTrader
⋅
I love your dream but it will come alive in 2024 to 2025 not 2023 sorry
JoyBoyVegae
⋅
Bitcoin isn’t ready to go that far. New lows and real bottom has to happen first; I can see about 30-35K around there then big drop will happen and we should expect bitcoin to bottom inside 10K or lower it’s possible .. then bull market will hit then few weeks later bitcoin halving will be starting. So don’t get full far ahead yet but true yes bitcoin will hit 100K but I can see greater than that. Bitcoin bottom target: around 10K. Bitcoin halving starting date: April 28th,2024.
jdo85
⋅
@Richburst9 lol keep dreaming, 10k give me a break.... not gonna happen.... bitcoin hit 15k that was your only chance and that was even luck from Luna and FTX.... people who believed in 10k are full of hopium sh*t, the same crap that happend in november 2021 calling 100k 200k and 300k at the top.... just stupid round numbers that doesnt even make any sense... sad you missed the bottom
TradingShot
⋅
Very informative chart. We like the progress we see.