A brief rundown of my thought analysis.
A brief rundown of my thought analysis.
I am working from the run up starting in March 2020. Starting the first touch on the parallel channel on 28th September through to 19th July 2020 (2) and running that channel up to point (1) at around 60k gave me the trend to work with.
Since peaking at 70k we have now dropped to the bottom of that trend line point (4). Which when I zoomed out i seen the wave pattern, it’s not so much a perfect Elliot wave is it. Having said that, wave 2 did not break lower than wave (0) & wave (3) did break higher than wave (1).
At the time of publishing this 8/1/22 - 21:31pm UK time, we are trading around 41k at the bottom of the trend line. Should we break to the upside from here I would expect 5th wave to be confirmed and progress to 80k.
How I achieved 80k, was by taking a fib measure of wave (2) to (3) and transferring over to the bottom of wave (4). At the 100% mark of wave (5) we hit 80k before retracing into a corrective A,B,C pattern. Which I have worked out by testing the 50% mark in wave (A) which will then retest wave (3) before retracing to around 50k. I achieved this by again measuring the down trend with the fib. From the start of the sell off in November 2020 we first tested 50% on the fib then down to 75% to 100% where we are now, on the bottom of the trend line. My A,B,C is not as clean as that but you can see the theory behind it.
Bear market or bounce to 100k…. if the 1,3,5 a,b,c comes to fruition? If the run to 100k fails after the a,b,c my guess based on previous drops after ath’s is that it may flatten out for a while before moving up again.
I also see the H&S forming on the 1 day & 1 week, this level it quite critical to hold and trend up for this bullish scenario to succeed. If we break lower 36k range could be tested.
I am no professional by far, just showing my opinion of what I see. I would be grateful to hear your thoughts on this and/ or your own theory.
A brief rundown of my thought analysis.
I am working from the run up starting in March 2020. Starting the first touch on the parallel channel on 28th September through to 19th July 2020 (2) and running that channel up to point (1) at around 60k gave me the trend to work with.
Since peaking at 70k we have now dropped to the bottom of that trend line point (4). Which when I zoomed out i seen the wave pattern, it’s not so much a perfect Elliot wave is it. Having said that, wave 2 did not break lower than wave (0) & wave (3) did break higher than wave (1).
At the time of publishing this 8/1/22 - 21:31pm UK time, we are trading around 41k at the bottom of the trend line. Should we break to the upside from here I would expect 5th wave to be confirmed and progress to 80k.
How I achieved 80k, was by taking a fib measure of wave (2) to (3) and transferring over to the bottom of wave (4). At the 100% mark of wave (5) we hit 80k before retracing into a corrective A,B,C pattern. Which I have worked out by testing the 50% mark in wave (A) which will then retest wave (3) before retracing to around 50k. I achieved this by again measuring the down trend with the fib. From the start of the sell off in November 2020 we first tested 50% on the fib then down to 75% to 100% where we are now, on the bottom of the trend line. My A,B,C is not as clean as that but you can see the theory behind it.
Bear market or bounce to 100k…. if the 1,3,5 a,b,c comes to fruition? If the run to 100k fails after the a,b,c my guess based on previous drops after ath’s is that it may flatten out for a while before moving up again.
I also see the H&S forming on the 1 day & 1 week, this level it quite critical to hold and trend up for this bullish scenario to succeed. If we break lower 36k range could be tested.
I am no professional by far, just showing my opinion of what I see. I would be grateful to hear your thoughts on this and/ or your own theory.
