Bitcoin is testing a range of support and resistance levels over $60k. As outlined in my last BTC TA, if bulls rallied I was looking for a bounce off the line marked macro support.
On lower timeframes that level unfortunately was breached, with a wick down to LTF support levels around $62.2k landed where we bounced back above the macro support. Depending on whether this level continues to hold will determine if we play out the rising wedge we are in, or drop below with the possibility of forming a lower timeframe falling wedge.
The MACD closed a bearish cross over its signal, and it appears to suggest rising bearish sentiment in the market. Given that DXY is also midst rally, and we are still generally close to the ATH range; plus we see some longterm HODLers beginning to take profit for the first time since Spring, this might be the first notable stop/correction on the way up to the cycle ATH in recent months.
While the DXY rally is worrisome, short term I don't see any indicators that a massive selloff is coming and exchange supplies appear to be continuing an overall downtrend, netflows appear to support continued bullish sentiment. But we are starting to see some cracks in bulls defenses, to include this 12h chart which presents a couple bearish indicators. From here I'll begin to monitor for signs of a local or cycle top much more closely.
For next steps, I suspect my last TA remains true. A consolidation in a range of $62k, but with the possibility of a short-lived drop or wick into the upper $50k range. And if DXY continues to rally and bulls continue to struggle, we might see more significant downside. However if DXY's rally begins to weaken, or if more bullish sentiment/news hits the market, we could easily begin a rally back towards $70k. The key is to watch how Bitcoin responds to the assorted support, resistance and other key levels noted on the chart, and how the current wedge pattern plays out.
On lower timeframes that level unfortunately was breached, with a wick down to LTF support levels around $62.2k landed where we bounced back above the macro support. Depending on whether this level continues to hold will determine if we play out the rising wedge we are in, or drop below with the possibility of forming a lower timeframe falling wedge.
The MACD closed a bearish cross over its signal, and it appears to suggest rising bearish sentiment in the market. Given that DXY is also midst rally, and we are still generally close to the ATH range; plus we see some longterm HODLers beginning to take profit for the first time since Spring, this might be the first notable stop/correction on the way up to the cycle ATH in recent months.
While the DXY rally is worrisome, short term I don't see any indicators that a massive selloff is coming and exchange supplies appear to be continuing an overall downtrend, netflows appear to support continued bullish sentiment. But we are starting to see some cracks in bulls defenses, to include this 12h chart which presents a couple bearish indicators. From here I'll begin to monitor for signs of a local or cycle top much more closely.
For next steps, I suspect my last TA remains true. A consolidation in a range of $62k, but with the possibility of a short-lived drop or wick into the upper $50k range. And if DXY continues to rally and bulls continue to struggle, we might see more significant downside. However if DXY's rally begins to weaken, or if more bullish sentiment/news hits the market, we could easily begin a rally back towards $70k. The key is to watch how Bitcoin responds to the assorted support, resistance and other key levels noted on the chart, and how the current wedge pattern plays out.
