Bitcoin: Hidden RSI Divergence in a Bearish Channel

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The digital currency has been trading in a bearish parallel channel on the 4H timeframe for over 18 days and has just tested the upper trend line . Since April 6th is has been printing lower highs consecutively, indicating its clearly bearish on this timeframe. Price touched the 382 Fibonacci retracement of the swing low that started on April 6th and seems ready for another dive. Yesterday it tried to retest the previous high but lacked the strength to make a double top . We also have hidden bearish RSI divergence , which indicates underlying weakness. Traders will probably be looking to sell this high.

If so, then price might go for a retest of the low on April 14th, which happens to coincide with a strong daily support level . There we would have another decision point:
  • it could bounce in which case we could have a double bottom after which price will go up and look to break the neckline (and in doing so, break out of the bearish channel ): green dotted arrow
  • it could break below and close below this support level in which case price would continue down the channel looking for new lows: red dotted arrow
You don´t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows - B. Dylan
I would really appreciate your 1d analysis too.
+1 Reply
Thanks for the comment. See link under Related Ideas (I just analysed the daily).
+1 Reply
That is a valid observation, one I missed though in my updated chart I too am anticipating further weakness to your daily support zone.

Well done, though I thought Bitcoin was my turf. Hehehe
+2 Reply
Thanks, I had a bit of spare time and decided to do some TA on Bitcoin. It seems to follow trend lines and Fibonacci pretty well, though I need to research it more to get a fuller understanding.
DanV JasperForex
Yes it does due to same human element as common factor, except it is relatively small cap instrument and fast reacting traders means you get lots of spikes as most of the move happens in very short time and then just seeming dies specially in this larger corrective cycle.,
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PooyaSalehipour JasperForex
Excellent, Bravo, Did you believe this target. It means we can Stop on 210?
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JasperForex PooyaSalehipour
We would have a new "decision moment" at 210 to see if the support holds or if price breaks below and closes below it to continue further down.
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