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30% drop on Bitcoin incoming? Get ready to buy lower!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Don't tell me I didn't warn you on March 8th about this first break out! The fractal was there:



However, those who missed this week's huge spike on Bitcoin shouldn't worry. Based on the 1D RSI another pull back should be coming soon.

As seen on the chart since the price action crossed over the 200DMA (orange line) during the last bear market (that practically signaled the end of the bear cycle), every time the RSI got over 83.000, BTCUSD declined at least -30%! In today's cycle, depending on where BTC makes the top, this puts the pull back to at least 3800.

Traders/ investors should be alert as the current consolidation/ accumulation period will offer a few buy signals/ entries before the next bull market completely takes over and leaves the current lows behind.


Below is such an example where the 1W RSI and Mayer Multiple give the final Buy Signal within June and October:




P.S. Some evidence that the cycles bottom is in and we are on the early stages of the new bull cycle:






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The latest analysis in 4H TF shows before any 30% down comes BTC will touch 5400 as volume is having strength.
Here is my bit done analysis .I hope you agree do the same .share your view please.

+1 Reply
@MarxBabu, Thanks Marx but I think you shared that chart one too many times!
Reply
Bearish market still on.
This was just a little retracement before going even lower.
Indicators are really exhausted and price action is telling us it can't go further.
+2 Reply
@Andbcoin, I think the bearish trend has been invalidated because the Lower High trend line broke. But any pull back will be welcome for a long term trader like me.
Reply
Andbcoin TradingShot
@TradingShot, It's possible. But Lower High trendline broken doesn't always mean it's going to keep going up.
Here's an example of a lower TF (30 min) showing the same you mean. The price is going down, down, down, and suddenly, the lower high trendline is broken. But, as the higher TF was still going down, it keeps its path down.
I would better say monthly MACD histogram is going up, but you know how histogram turns down suddenly, whipsaw, and up again. With it I mean it's still risky. We must see a long term higher low, and it can still take months. That's why I'm a trend rider instead of long term trader. Each trader has its own trading style.

Here is a photo to illustrate what I mean.

Have a good day and thanks for your comment =)

Reply
Great argument, I appreciate the effort you have put into this. I agree with your sentiment, but it seems there is alot of emotion in there air right now with bulls. I am by no means a shorter, or see bitcoin dropping to new lows.. but FOMO'ing in at these levels is way to risky considering the indicators are peaking. I'm happy to wait on the sidelines with my bags for now (:
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CryptoToid CryptoToid
@CryptoToid, Also, July 6th 2015. Thats what I can best compare this situation to right now.
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CryptoToid CryptoToid
@CryptoToid, Weekly* ^^ (ffs)
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TradingShot CryptoToid
@CryptoToid, Agreed. FOMO always leads to a pull back as the sentiment switches direction in a heartbeat when the big buyers who bought the bottom take their profit.
Reply
Thank you for the analysis.

Please look at another fundamental news. Do you think we will break down 53% sharply?

Reply
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