I have posted a previous idea about long term Elliot Wave, here is the analysis mid term in logarithmic scale.
If this is correct we could see BTC to reach the long term wave 5 in November coinciding with the medium term wave 5 reaching around 6000USD to start then the correction phase that could reach around 1800 on wave 5 by January 2018 within a longer term correction phase.
This is just a theoretical possibility, I'm not sure myself that this could happen. If fundamentals support BTC may be it will not go done like this Elliot Wave predicts. But if BTC starts to be seen as an old technology (kind of a MySpace) and starts to get replaced by others more advanced and with more practical uses in real live than BTC? Remember that the scalability issue of BTC has just been postponed but is not really solved, they are just patching it with SegWit, block size increases, SegWitx2, etc... but as capacity is added more usage can be put on the network that will make it reach again the capacity cap.
Also, please note that I put a A-E correction wave in April 2017 when in theory it should only be A-C, but that is what the chart was giving me. What do you think about that?
You realize your waves do not respect the basic rules? Wave 4 cuts wave 1 price territory, you also get some wave 3 shorter than 1 and 5...
jorge964
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@Terl, I probably should have been a bit more precise drawing the lines, but as I was working with two time frames (for the long term idea that I also published) I was a bit way off with the lines. But if you check the levels you will see that wave 4 does NOT overlap wave 1 price territory, it just get to almost the same level because the resistance of wave 1 worked as support for wave 4, which is a very common occurrence (previous resistence becomes current support).
On the other hand you are right about the second wave 3 being shorter than its corresponding wave 1, I'm not sure how "carved in stone" that rule is and if it allows for some flexibility or not, but the truth is that the second wave fits quite nicely and then has the retracement after wave 5 as the model predicts. On the right hand side (red "prediction") may be I should have been also more careful to do wave 3 longer than 1 and 4 not to overlap with 1. I would fix it if it was possible but after publishing it is no longer possible. In any case, the red part could be easily tweaked to have a shorter wave 1, longer wave 3 and shorter wave 5 keeping the same levels like in here:
Do you agree more with that one? (I made it private as it is only a correction, I hope you can see it)
jorge964
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@jorge964, I forgot to mention that the price levels for the waves predictions on red (right) come from this previous Fibo analysis that I did and which currently the price is tracking perfectly ;)
jorge964
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@Terl, may be I'm wrong with my wave analysis, do you have an alternative analysis that fits better without the violation of the rule on the second wave 3?
cryptofan07
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it is very possible and wise description of down fall scenario. I think its the worst what may truely happen