Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit today its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in exactly 3 months (since January 14). That test resulted in a rejection and kickstarted the 2nd Bearish Leg of the Bear Cycle.
Technically the 1D MA100 has been holding as the Cycle's Resistance since October 10 2025 (only 4 days after the Bull Cycle Top) and has never managed to close a 1D candle above.
As a result, it is highly likely for BTC to experience a new rejection here, technically initiating the 3rd Bearish Leg of this structure. The 1st one declined by -36.25% and the 2nd by -38.70%. Based on this, a test of the psychological level of $50000 is realistic, as long as the 1D MA100 holds on a weekly basis, which would bring the market one step closer to the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed.
So what do you think? Rejection on the 1D MA100 or break-out and invalidation of the pattern? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Technically the 1D MA100 has been holding as the Cycle's Resistance since October 10 2025 (only 4 days after the Bull Cycle Top) and has never managed to close a 1D candle above.
As a result, it is highly likely for BTC to experience a new rejection here, technically initiating the 3rd Bearish Leg of this structure. The 1st one declined by -36.25% and the 2nd by -38.70%. Based on this, a test of the psychological level of $50000 is realistic, as long as the 1D MA100 holds on a weekly basis, which would bring the market one step closer to the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed.
So what do you think? Rejection on the 1D MA100 or break-out and invalidation of the pattern? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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Funded trading -10% off👉 hyrotrader.com/?coupon=tradingshot
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.