CryptoCosmonaut

Possible decending triangle to form further in this range

Short
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In this range of consolidation there is a possible descending triangle forming that would come to a conclusion in the medium term to next 16 days at most. Volume has been extremely lackluster as you can see with traditional volume indicators and historical volatility percentile, all signs point to a major move with mostly confluence to the downside. Buyers also do not seem too interested in buying but there is an overwhelming amount of longs entering the order books as everyone has been talking about recently. On the higher time frames all osculating indicators are pointing towards the downside most notably the 6h stochastic RSI having a reset during sideways price action. We can also see divergence plays happening over and over as we may likely see a bigger move soon. There have been bullish divergence signals with absolutely pitiful buying pressure to follow. There is a big move brewing and the bulls didn't even show up to the game. It's also important to note that the last time we formed a descending triangle was when bitcoin was in this price range and we dropped from 6k to 3.3k fueled by a long squeeze no where near the magnitude of the imbalance between the ratio longs/shorts right now. It will be very interesting to wait and see how this consolidation plays out in the medium term timeframes.

If the decending triangle plays out, there is also a valid head and shoulders that looks like it actually wants to play out as well on the daily. A break of this pattern would send us to as low as 4.5k as that is also a break of the 800 ema on the daily and the 21 ema on the weekly. The 200 weekly moving average is sitting at the low 5k level as we have never broke below it. I can see us wicking below it for the first time but ultimately being defended and closing above it.

This TA seems to also coincide well with the last long term analysis I posted back in April. Check that one out as well and I hope you have a great time trading.

Please give me a like if you have enjoyed this TA and I will be sure to post more in the future.
Comment:
Comment: Also, in February I posted analysis stating we should probably find some price discovery in the 5k range, but instead we soared straight past it. In this chart, you can still see we still need to have price acceptance in this 4.5-5.8k range. The bull run to 12k+ has changed my perspective quite a bit to say the least, but the indicator is still saying something here.

Once we make a higher low on the macro scale I am convinced we will start to discover acceptance higher than 10k as we have spent less than 3% in bitcoin's history above 10k. Cheers! That is all!

Comment: Also, I wanted to share my opinion on such a long squeeze playing out. If we do long squeeze, I suspect we actually will make a higher low since there is still a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to get in. This move would most likely be a quick move and instantly fill in the mid 4k volume profile as well as provide liquidity for some major money to enter into the market. We most likely will not be in that region very long at all.

this is not trading advice but I have limit buy orders waiting.

Also, the order books are already stacked pretty heavily in the mid 4k region.

Comments

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