BTC touching the reversal zone

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
After a beauty of a bullrun, btc reached the reversal area which I determined when BTC was around 3.5-.38k (link below).
We're fininishing 2x 5-legs cycles, from 880 (more or less) and from 3000. But as you can see, the blue box goes all the way up to 6800. This means that we still might see a push further up, but a pullback will happen soon.
So, normally it would be very logic to see a 3 waves pullback. On the chart I showed the fibonacci levels from the complete cycle, but I doubt the correction will be that deep. I'm more looking at the blue trendline as a possible target.

It would be very easy to give a target for a possible pullback, but imho its too early for that. BTC is just BTC and is doing his own thing when bulls are boss.
Trading advise for now: keep your eyes on the priceaction and lock some profits when its going down.

All in all, the coming correction is a good chance to rebuy more for the next cycle up (yes, more up).
I will not short this....I'm too busy and its too tricky imho, therefore I out "Strategy" on neutral.

Comment: check bearish divergence on 240!!
Comment: Maybe small ABC correction before last push into the blue box
Comment: BTC finished its ABC correction.
A bit more retracement which makes the target for the final push in this cycle a bit lower.
Comment: BTC shows weakness and no volume for a decent push.
After noticing that this push is failing, i turned bearish also for short term like I already was for mid term. BTC seems to be making a ABC correction where we still are in first leg. My guess is, we'll head down towards the first blue trendline and forming a bearish flag there, to be followed by a deeper drop towards the blue box.
This is also corresponding with a Fibo retracement of 38%. As I wrote earlier, I'm long term bullish on BTC and this 38% retracement of the previous cycle might be enough. Checking the A-leg, this looks logical to me.

Comment: Update: BTC made the B leg
Comment: Push up went a bit further, but failed at fibo .786
Broke out of the bearish flag, currently retesting it

Comment: C leg on its way
Comment: BTC is in a tricky situation which I'm talking about aready for the last 2 weeks. BTC reached my target at (5) what means that cycle is mature. Both on 4hr as the whole run from around 1300, it reached target. Both cycles are mature, which means that a correction would be logical, but its NOT a guarantee that the cycle is finished, it still might do a try to do 1 more push up, more into the blue box. Last few days, we saw a downmove and we were anticipating more downside. towards (C) I repainted my BTC chart and it touched the trendline and pulling back now. If it drops below the blue trendline , we will go to (C), if we crack the yellow line we will go to (Y). The possible move to (Y) looks nice to trade, but beware if it happens, its the last push up before correction and as the cycle is mature, its not a guarantee it will reach (Y). It can finish the cycle any time towards (Y). Risky to try to catch the possible last push. be carefull
Comment: BTC reached the target box
Comment: BTC went bananas this week and extended my targetbox. Next resistance level is around 8k which I never mentioned as I thought it was very unlikely that we would extend the blue box. But BTC showed once again that its doing its own thing when its on a run.....
For now, I think we've reached the top and due to some correction.
First target is around 6800, followed by a bounce and probably another dip and forming a bigger ABC correction towards next blue box close to the blue trendline. If (a big if) we get that far, it's decision time: more correction (which seems logical to me) or continuation of the bull run. Will try to update once we get there.

Be cautious, this scenario is still very premature and BTC can go wild again.


I can't believe BTC actually made yet another push towards ATH. I was all ready to buy around the $5300 mark should it bounce off the support but it didn't happen. This is insane. I know you're saying this is the final push but with Segwit2x fork on Nov 17th and B2X futures trading at $1100, I think we are gonna see a mad gold rush for Bitcoin for another 18 days. This is not a good time to be an alt trader as alts are getting hammered.

I just hope the B2X fork flops because if forks continue to be profitable, the Bitcoin Silver fork is gonna cause another gold rush and we will never see the end of it.
+2 Reply
@nginx, Disagree, great time for an alt trader...some excellent value available due to BTC Bull IMHO
+2 Reply
giola79 WARBUCK
@WARBUCK, I'm agree.
+2 Reply
@WARBUCK, zcoin
Could you tell me which indicator do you use in this image? Thanks ( "Comment: check bearish divergence on 240!! " )
+2 Reply
RaVonX miwa2
@miwa2, MACD lol
eFund miwa2
@miwa2, MACD deuter, colors changed tho

miwa2 miwa2
thanks :)
Hats off to you, you were the only one who called it all those weeks ago, yet i chose to stay in cash waiting on a 'correction' to sub $3000 levels.
+1 Reply
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