BTC_Daily.Pips

Strategy of adding shorts during this downtrend

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1314 16 10
This chart I published is part of discussion with user ProwdClown under comment section of https://www.tradingview.com/v/z9lzqDJA/#tc142584.

Here you can see the channel and when is the optimal short entry during the downtrend (ingoring the swing trading here). So, now we are fluctuating under -0.618 and above -0.764 level of this fib channel. Proactive shorts anticipating the price to break the supporting level should be avoided, shorting either at the test of a above level or wait for at least a daily candle to break down the supporing level (in this case -0.764) and close under it and enter short after we see a candle closed testing it from the other side (beneath it) (like drawn with red). This strategy gave great low risk entries! So, preliminary, should the bearish scenario occur like in the original published idea, I am orientated to see at least 220 broken, retrace from 210s zone, and wait for the retrace when a daily candle closes touching it under it, probably in 230s. Then it is a great short opportunity and I follow the bearish scenario. As long as it stays on the line level, still keeping the accumulated longs, with S/L at BE level.

This is the strategy of adding shorts during the downtrend, you can combine with cycles seen here:
The 1 Year Story of BTC and what is it telling us now
to trade some great swings during the downtrend. Once the bearish scenario confirms, I will update the channel with next levels and targets to watch and also interesting possible swings and targets. Now you can zoom out and see the bigger picture of the idea.

Unfortunately, there are not enough fib channel lines to fullfill the whole channel and entries in this chart, also the 1 level of the fib channel had to be moved to another level, but it connects the tops from April and December 2013.

ProwdClown, should you have any other questions regarding this strategy, don't hesitate to ask ;) :D

Best,
Sergiu
I like the sound of your ideas. I'm a bit sleepy right now and cannot think straight. I've been up all night again. LOL

I'm sure I will have plenty of questions for you tomorrow; as I'm not familiar with some terms you use but I learn quickly.

If it stays pretty much flat line today, no alarms will wake me. However, if we have lots of volume, my alarms are liable to wake me up. Either way, I will be back with some questions once I get some coffee in me.

Thanks again for taking the time to make this chart, Sir.

Regards,

David

PS - Very hard to say where the market will lead us at the moment. These are possible scenarios depending on the indicators and the volume. However, I believe the psychology of the market now for the bulls is, "Why take it to 260 if the bears are just going to dump it?" I'm sure bears would think, "Why dump now and give away my coin to someone on the cheap?" So, they are both protecting. That's why I feel the psychology of the market now has it not wanting to go above $255. That is where I have the horizontal purple line drawn. Which see: http://i.imgur.com/xD3eiiI.jpg
+2 Reply
BTC_Daily.Pips ProwdClown
2 years ago
Yep, between 220 and 260 is my neutral zone now, as discussed in the previous published idea. Not adding or closing here anything, waiting for the market to make its move, sticking to my strategy ;) thx for the link, btw. See you later around! Cheers!
+1 Reply
ProwdClown PRO BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Yes, see you around later, Sir.

Happy trading!!!

Got to get some shut eye! I also need to change my hours. lol ;)
+1 Reply
ProwdClown PRO BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
We just might see the white hot flame line: http://i.imgur.com/Tc4pOjb.jpg
+1 Reply
FeneghFengholi ProwdClown
2 years ago
that was brilliant
Reply
ProwdClown PRO BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
It's kind of looking like the market has made up it's mind to continue under -0.618 and above -0.764 level of the fib channel for now. I know what channel you are referring to but I don't know what a "fib" is. I'll need to Bing it. lol

I'm still seeing more of a bullish market with BTC/USD into the weekend. This weekend will be very interesting.
Reply
Hi SergiuFala,

Commonsense would tell me the following statement: "So, now we are fluctuating under -0.618 and above -0.764 level of this fib channel" is referring to the bottom two lines on your live chart you published. I'm still learning "trade lingo." What do those numbers actually represent? Where would I find these numbers or how would I create the numbers on a chart? I suppose it is going to take time for me to learn those "values" as I use the knowledge base on creating charts.
Reply
BTC_Daily.Pips ProwdClown
2 years ago
Hi David! Yes you are right, -0.764 is the last line and -0.618 is the next one above it. All these numbers (except 0.5, it is used because is a signifcant point to know where is the half :D) represent the ratios between the numbers of the Fibonacci sequence. You can see the idea and mathematics behind it in this link: http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/fibonacciretracement.asp . Here we have the Fibonacci channel based on this ratio and you can find it among other Fib intruments on the left under your picture, inside the 3 button of the drawing toolbar. I also use to watch the 0.886 and 0.114 in the channel, as it is used in harmonic patterns ratios, which also form based on Fibonacci patterns. You can read about it here:https://www.harmonicpatterns.com/harmonic-pattern-education/ , also you can try watching these videos for better understanding how to build them: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlY_4I9AZD0 , https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SirRW2UwpBw . I think you will enjoy it and should you have question, don't hestitate ;) ! Good Luck and Happy trading! ;) :D
Reply
ProwdClown PRO BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Wow!

Thanks again for the links for the knowledge base. Big help!!!

I will definitely check these out. As for now, I must take a nap for about 4.5 hours then get back to taxes.

Thanks again, Sir!

PS - I participated in the chat box for about an hour. Don't be surprised if you get more views.

Later...
+1 Reply
BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Update: Highlighted for a better view, trades inside these converging triangle are too risky, espcially when you are positioned in the middle of it
snapshot
Reply
ProwdClown PRO BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
I agree... It can be more risky here at the moment. It can do anything. However, I'm thinking it could possibly go to 220 and be a good place to buy at 220. http://i.imgur.com/WzRuEy5.png
Reply
BTC_Daily.Pips ProwdClown
2 years ago
50k BTC auction came out, will see where it gets us...
Breaking the previous 227-228 low could be devastating and we can say goodbye to the upswing expectations
snapshot
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BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
Inside of updated fib channels I will publish tomorrow. We are ready for next bullrun soon, this or next daily candle:
snapshot
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ProwdClown PRO BTC_Daily.Pips
2 years ago
I agree, Sir! My charts indicate the same. We obviously do not have to have a dump before we pump, as some traders think.
Reply
kenzboard ProwdClown
2 years ago
I'd love to see a run up to 350 but the Silk Road Aution on the 5th bugs me from believe in the bull scenario 100%.
Reply
ProwdClown PRO kenzboard
2 years ago
It's possible that is the reason everything is in limbo at the moment. However, if I had enough money to buy 50,000 or even 10,000 BTC, I would be holding onto it for a while. I might sell a few at a slow pace across multiple exchanges but I would hold on to most of it and trade with them like everything is normal.
Reply
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