CryptoCow

Bitcoin (BTC) - don't sell your house... just yet!

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BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The small uptrend we are seeing now in BTC is just a corrective wave B, according to my analysis.

It should bring us into 9,5k - 9,6k territory (or higher, if some FOMO kicks in), and then I expect to see a C wave down.

What are the targets?

1.) If we get a very bullish correction, we could put in a double bottom at around 9k.

2.) More likely is a deeper drop somewhere between the 0.382 and 0.5 Fib-levels, between 8,3k - 8,7k.

3.) Also possible, but hopefully will not happen, is a retracement to 7,9k or even lower.

Only if we retrace lower than 6,640 $ we would be in real trouble, since that would indicate a wave failure, and further corrections (= continuation of the bear market). Let's hope that it does not come to that - but also, let's be prepared for the possibility.

Good luck!

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Comment: If my analysis is correct, we will actually form a classic Head & Shoulders pattern, which I'm sure many analysts who don't use Elliott wave theory will be eager to point out, soon.


They can then trade the brakeout from the neckline, while we can sell at the high of wave B, as soon as we see that this analyis might be correct.
Trade active: Wow, that was an incredible crappy B wave, if it's already completed - but maybe it was just the half of it yet.
Comment: Looks like this was B indeed. Now let's see how far down we go.
Comment: Well well, looks like the real "fun" started.

That B wave looks very strange indeed, but let's assume that it was a valid B wave for now.

If wave C will have the same length as A, then our target is around 8,370$.


Mind you, C can extend way over that, but it can also be truncated - so be careful.
Comment: We are getting closer and closer to my target.

If we get down there, it's very like that we will touch the 50% Fib-level, which is at 8,300$.
Comment: *very likely
Trade closed: target reached: My target is reached, hopefully we will get a bounce from 8,3k.

Otherwise next stop is 7,9k.
Comment: I believe that this correction is done, but of course you can never be sure with BTC.

It can always dump more than you think.

Comment: And finally the bigger picture:

Comment: BTC has formed a nice triangle, which often appear at the end of C waves.
We are breaking out of it just as I write this.

Comments

Yes, but the wave A down is more than 5 waves. It's really pushing it trying to believe that just to convince ourselves that we are on a B (as opposed to finished the C already).
Reply
CryptoCow supestv
@supestv, Maybe, but wave structures can be stretched. I don't see a clear wave B yet, do you?

We will know very soon if this analysis will get invalidated, or not.
Reply
supestv CryptoCow
@CryptoCow, Yes, I see it in $9185 to $9473
Reply
CryptoCow supestv
@supestv, I thought the same before (see my last post), but now I think that is just the retracement of wave 3 of A.
Reply
CryptoCow CryptoCow
@CryptoCow, Btw I would be glad to be wrong on this one, because I'm already sick of this sideways market.
Reply
CryptoCow supestv
@supestv, See, it was not just to "convince ourselves".
Reply
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