Today Bitcoin is about to complete the 2nd straight green month. Is such feat possible to be in a Bear Cycle?

The answer is yes, it is possible but based on this simple chart, not that probable. And the reason is simple. Out of all three past BTC Bear Cycles, we've only had 2 straight bullish monthly (1M) candles once and that was during the 2nd Bear Cycle on the months of May and June (2014). During the 1st Bear Cycle we had no green ( bullish ) monthly streaks, same with the 3rd.

This solidifies more and more the notion that the 1M RSI has to make a Double Top as in Cycle 2 and 3 in order for a top to be formed and so far that is pending. Also during the 2nd Bear Cycle, the 2 month bullish streak broke but closed below/ on the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and failed to even touch the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. That is a common characteristic of all Bear Cycles (never closed above the 1D MA200 after breaking it as well as never reaching the 0.618 Fib). On the other hand, the current 2 month bullish streak hit both the 1D MA50 as well as the 0.618 and will most likely close above the 1D MA200 today.

The above sequence of events makes me believe that we have more chances to still be within a Bull Cycle and not approaching the middle of a Bear Cycle. What do you think?

Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.