BTCUSD update: Price pushes through the 8626 support level to find some hesitation at the 8350 reversal zone boundary. This area is a much more attractive place to look for longs, but taking a swing trade is contingent on what type of reversal formation appears.
Momentum is now bearish and even though price is in the vicinity of support levels, it is reasonable to expect this sell off to continue until it proves otherwise. In order to do that, it needs to form a clear reversal candle such as a pin bar, engulfing, inside bar, etc. And further evaluation such as reward/risk can be figured out at that point, but for now, we are steering clear of any new long swing trades until this market can prove stability.
Overall our perspective at S.C. is bullish and the current retrace is normal and healthy. If this short term weakness continues, price can reasonably revisit the 7700's or even lower before showing signs of reversal. This is not a prediction, just a possibility that can materialize if this momentum does not change soon. Information like this is what helps to minimize premature entry while the market continues to sell.
Currently, the next minor resistance that can serve as a bullish target once stability returns is the 9359 to 9633 zone (.618 of current bearish swing). This zone will adjust lower if this market continues to push lows.
In summary, now that price is interacting with predetermined levels like the 8350 reversal zone boundary (relative to the 8650 low) it is time to pay close attention to the formations that materialize here. And since momentum is clearly bearish, it is a good idea to be more selective as far as what to accept as a reversal worth entering. At the moment, there is nothing to do except watch and wait. If an appropriate setup appears, risk can then be measured and possibly a swing trade triggered. Keep an eye out for updates on S.C. because that is where trade signal details will appear.
There is nothing healthy or normal about this selloff. It is believed that the infamous Mt. Gox trustee got this snowball rolling: ccn.com/8200-btc-moved-from-mt-gox-wallet-possible-sell-off-affects-bitcoin-price/ The careless behavior of this man has caused a great deal of harm to the market. Unfortunately, he still has more than 100k BTC to dump. So we should expect more trouble to come.
bits_007
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@rev214us, they were suppose to give the btc back.... they want to keep the difference from 2014 level. %$#*#(^@#
sankarmail
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@rev214us, have you heard of OTC? if yes, why would Mt.Gox will sell it in market, especially really large count? Mt.Gox news is bullshit, it is to scare people, and buy more btc at cheaper price. Either you believe in btc's long term or not. Currently good alt coins projects are there, and major altcoins still depend upon BTC.So I expect BTC to come back and will be in healthy state for minimum 3 years until fiat support is provided for all altcoins.
kardia
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@sankarmail, Yes, I am aware of OTC. Why don't you ask him why he isn't selling OTC? It's useless to ask me that question.
sankarmail
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@rev214us, You are the one spreading Mt.Gox news here, not him.
kardia
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@sankarmail, I am trying to inform people about what has happened. You are clueless.
sankarmail
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@rev214us, This is healthy correction. Stop trying to find reasons for everything, dont be clueless.