I am feeling a little better. I was really sick! So I go to the doctor in the city and they close the main road to my house! I had to take an alternate route and ended up getting stuck in the snow. So, I am sick and shoveling SNOW! I ended up getting pulled out by an off-duty fireman who was out looking for Snow and just happened upon me. Anyway, you don't come here to listen to my problems... If you follow me on Twitter you will no doubt here about my problems!
I was really impressed with the TA I did on BTC since being away. R1 is now support. There is volatility coming in as I type this with the bulls trying to push the price higher.
We had a nice short-squeeze amounting to about $360.00 (USD) from the start of the run. We are in a nice distribution pattern. I am sorry I have to make this short but I am still feeling sick!
-Resistance @ $3749.00 is still holding nicely. I bet you're wondering how and why I pegged this point? And the same for my Support level? Well, therein lies the little tricks to understanding how probability and a few indicators help me out. Most of which I remove from my charts because they clutter them up; nonetheless, those points held nicely.
-You can see my standard orange dotted support trendline with no less than 4-data points establishing a strong support trend -- along with the solid orange resistance trendline above. The solid orange trendline only has 2-data points, so it is a reference until a 3rd data point is established.
It is easy to see the symmetrical channel has formed indicating distribution. Everything looks as it should, but where do we go next? I have been a Bear since $6500.00. I am noticing that the big money likes to keep us below 4k now. Before they were keeping us around $4400.00. I am seeing people predicting bottoms, some recommending shorting! If you follow me, you will rarely hear that kind of nonsense! If I could predict that, I would be richer than I already am, and I would be selling that information! But, I practice what I preach, and what I preach is what I was taught. This is a casino and we will use probability to help us on our journey to make good investment decisions.
In a perfect world, we would see a move twice the distance of the channel or right to R3.
The point to watch is the support level indicated in the chart. If we break that level it will become resistance and the high probability we begin to move lower as the money liquidates. I would consider it irresponsible of me to recommend buying at this level. WHY? go back through the chart and you will find the answers you seek! You would have to believe, in your heart, in your TA, and have the disposable cash to make that decision on your own. What I can say is, I am still a Bear! I have no position in BTC and predicted a 3k price level by February. I hope for the longs, I am not correct.
The green trendline is a reference -- if you follow me you know I throw them up to establish some reference trendlines. I do this because as a programmer, I like to think like the algorithms. You will come to find how many times these little out-of-nowhere references line up perfectly in some support and resistance TA profiles!
My apologies for keeping this analysis ambiguous, but I feel crappy! I will be on Twitter and throwing up news and other stuff and hopefully chatting with some friends.
I hope my perspective helps give you some valuable insight into how to think like a professional trader. If you follow me long enough, all my secrets will be revealed over time and you will be able to go off and expand your knowledge and find me follow you!