BTC - time to fear or time for greed ?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello guys,

Last night was tough for us all BTC buyers as the $40,000 level was way too windy for us to stay too long there.
The first drop to the zone below $34,700, which I considered to be also the first serious test down, resulted in a lot of long positions being drowned. That level, in my opinion, was strong due to the combination of horizontal and diagonal indicators on the 4-h timeframe chart. So, once it was breached yesterday, it was just a matter of time before the weak hands were taken out of the picture and a full candle down is formed. And this is precisely what happens today, although there is still plenty of time to close the daily candle, I don't see it coming back at least until tomorrow.

We are used to seeing some bloody Mondays and this one is not an exception. I opened a few positions myself today morning European time when BTC temporarily recovered to $36,000, but I guess I was too optimistic, so 7 percent underwater by the time I write this.

So, bullish case - BTC hits $32,000 and the 100-day EMA on 4-h and finds support there, hopefully, consolidate there, so we can see some more longs opened that can trigger the reversal. A lot of long, emtpy wicks here, which usually suggest an inconsistency in the trend and lack of solid seller power (in our case).

The Fibb 23.60 retracement level supports the $32,000 theory:

Bearish: I think the blow-off-top-looking all-time high we saw is speaking for itself. This could easily be an end of the cycle for now. Also, taking into consideration Biden coming into power next week and the whole "buy rumor, sell the news" thing. Another thing - have you recently looked into the Dollar Index ? Does the below ring a bell ?



Ok, first attempt to break below $32,000 saved.
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