BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
OK, we have satisfyingly broke our one of the biggest resistances. But even though I want this pair to go higher as a HODLER more than trader, everything about technicals pointing short direction for this pair.

First of all, let's talk about patterns. Ascending Broadening Wedge is the most pronounced. This is mostly bearish . Combined with the Head Shoulders -even though it is not guaranteed to play out- we are still drawing and if that won't play out, another big resistance signified with the dark horizontal line will mean double top if we don't get enough volume and drive this pair to the lower levels. Also we have bearish divergence at RSI between the start and end of the head of the head shoulder I draw.

Second, I believe one of the most important signifier of a trend change: volume . Looking at this chart, volume looks as it should have been, absolute dip has more volume than the previous one (even though previous dip has lower volume then the dip before that). But coinmarketcap says totally different story. Looking at the history of total BTC             volume of the market, every dip has lower volume than the previous one (something like 33 percent less every time). Which is very very bad news for bulls.

Third, this might be my conspiracy theory, but I am publishing what I think I am seeing. Comparing 4hr and 3hr chart volume graphs tells completely different story. Considering many big traders and bots play their positions looking at 4hr charts, I believe bulls are trying to manipulate the volume chart here. Just go on and compare 4hr and 3hr yourself. You will see more red lines and more bear volume at 3hr but 4hr says complete opposite.

As a full time HODLER and part time trader since more than 3 years in this market, this is the first time I am shorting BTC             . This looks that bad.
Comment: i tried to compare 3hr and 4hr red/green volume bars in different areas of the chart. It always had almost same ratios between this time frames. but this time, it is different. there are more than 2 times red lines at 3hr time frame. i don't know how or why but it is there. you can count it and compare them yourselves.
Comment: i am still trading the same bearish wedge with a heavy long time resistance cutting it from the half (black line at 9060usd). everytime we retest the black resistance line, our volume declines (today we will test for the 3rd time) and rsi becomes more and more bearish. today or tomorrow, this pair will draw a triple top and start failing quickly. be advised. i become even more bearish since i posted this idea.
Comment:
Trade closed manually: it seems that now its time to short altcoins
Comment:

the wedge is still valid and i am still bear btw. just not trading it, waiting at usd.
Interesting analysis!
+1 Reply
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