COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD has just completed at 100% retrace from November 16. I see a few scenarios ahead of it.

  • XABCD: Given how violently fast BTCUSD rose to $20,000, there is a possibility of an explosive push back to the $20,000 level, and a retrace to mid-October levels. This would break the 200D MA, which BTCUSD has not CLOSED below since late-2015. A recovery and 2nd retrace this fast would create an extremely chaotic market (not necessarily bear, depending on the 2nd recovery), with MAs very far apart and indicators confused.

  • Channels 2 & 1A: Channel 2's top was formed back in Spring 2017 and played a role (resist/support) in the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018. Channel 1A is the upper half of a channel that lasted 2 cycles (July - December 2017), and has played a significant role throughout January, specifically toward the end of the month. A recovery to one of these two channels would be fast, but far more healthy than an explosion back to 20,000.

  • Channels 1B & 3: Channel 1B is the lower half of the channel mentioned above, and is (in my opinion) the healthiest channel return to. If BTCUSD did not see the massive increase in December 2017, I believe we would currently be in a healthy correction landing somewhere in 1B or 3. Channel 3 is a hypothetical channel I created by projecting the 200D MA in a linear fashion. In my mind this would be a healthy pace to recover at. I prefer Channel 1B however, because the 200D MA is likely our last support before returning to $5,500 - $6,500 levels and having significant resistance above. Breaking the 200D MA in a slow fashion from Channel 3 would likely indicate a bear market.
Trade active:

BTCUSD is trading perfectly with the chart. That's hilarious because all we did was draw a similar-angled line to match the 200D MA. MACD curling upward, RSI looking to break out of the down trend.

She may not move like she used to, but BTC is doing just fine.
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