This is why you don't step in front of a market that has yet to confirm. Bitcoin has entered into the 50K to 47,500 area bullish reversal zone. It took about 3 weeks from the previous peak to get here, but as I remind our followers regularly, PATIENCE PAYS. This is where infrequent and higher probability opportunities develop, NOT near highs.
How many people were lured into the alt coin hype and euphoria only to get stuck in this situation? Clearly, the majority of alts have retraced significantly off their highs, FOLLOWING Bitcoin. No matter how amazing their ideas, projects, promises, milestones, white papers, forks, etc. Where Bitcoin goes, they eventually still follow. People who caught some big moves when most of these coins were worth next to nothing basically caught lottery tickets. IF you bought when prices were vertical, you may now realize all you were doing was letting these people out of their positions. Lesson: Don't chase vertical markets. Don't buy highs.
Now that Bitcoin is sitting around a support area, along with many alts (LTC, DOT, UNI,etc.) the reward/risk and probability around such a location makes a LOT more sense for a new swing trade long. When to enter though? And what is the risk?
There is one inside bar established and another still in play (today's candle). If price can take out the 51,300 level, that would confirm a new buy signal. The risk is defined from 47,300 which means you are looking at 4K point stop. Potential rewards can begin to be measured between the 53,300 to 60K area which offers a R:R of greater than 1:1.
Will Bitcoin push through 60K on the next leg higher? There is no way to know, BUT it is within reason to test the mid to high 50Ks on an attempt. For a swing trade that is all we are looking for, a reward/risk ratio and probability that is favorable.
IF 47,500 support breaks instead, the next support is around the 46 to 44K area. If that is taken out, then its 40K.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and I hope you find it helpful.
@serhan, He did great job, depending on the trend bitcoin looks to breakout to 55K
tommytoan11
⋅
Reasoned and wise words. Exactly what this space needs.
Cryptopaddie
⋅
Flat correction 3 3 5 one more leg down on 4 hr then up
Trendsharks
⋅
Agreed. I also see a possible catch here. The market could establish a false breakout to 57650.00 to test the resistance (previous support) before diving lower. The broader market expects the price to bottom out just around the corner, which is why a lot of people are likely to be lured in to go long. This is precisely the type of sensible environment that market whales love to fish in. Therefore, a potential rebound from the 57650.00 resistance could open up the possibility for a more sizable correction towards 30k.
very wise sir, i just allocated some of my money to an idiot from youtube advising his break out strategy. oh, let me hanging on the peaks. wish he would be thrown to wolfs in siberia. ;) But lesson learnt and it will cost a hell lot of time. i am not taking these 50% over losses. i saw history had even more set back and recovered well . Guess this will be the case in this time as well. It is a pleasure following your TA and thank you with deep respect for your time and work.
xtrabytes2018
⋅
@PedroRolles, the positive thing is you won't ever do it again and learn from it.
PedroRolles
⋅
@xtrabytes2018, yeah mate , hard lesson learned. But if it happens at the macro trend change then it would suck. Luccky we may have a high chance to break ATH from this correction.... Uhhh. Alright , so lesson to others, DO NOT FALL for youtubers , jsut learn yourself first on how to trade and listen purely to your own decisions. Following does not bring you an edge and can be even more costly if something happens in the wrong time at the worst place on the market.