The Fib Channel uses 3 points: Low, Second Low and a High that's in between. I've chosen the 2013 local low, 2015 capitulation low and the 2014 Blow off top at ~ 1,150$. Note how all major lows and highs are respected including the 2017 blow off top.
The channel perfectly caught the 14,000$ local top in June 2019 (0.5 Fib), the capitulation in March 2020 as well as the current highs in April and November 2021 - finding resistance at the 0.618 and 0.5 Fib respectively.
Currently, we are at the 0.236 level, which when broken to the upside (in 2017, 2019 and 2021) let do a big increase in price. This is a subjective price predicting tool, much like all others, so still use with caution.
P.s. if you play around and make a separate Fib Channel for each cycle thus far, you will find that the 1.0 always acted as resistance for the final Blow off top.
I've been thinking that the '20 Covid correction and the '21 Miner correction both were anomalies that changed the outcome of a repeating pattern. That would have normally put a blow-off top in '21 at around 180k which would have been expected. My thinking is that we are in a corrective phase now like 2014. Is it possible we have a bull run coming this year? Possibly, but also possible we are in the midst of a bear/accumulation cycle that won't peak again until '24 timeframe.
FiveMillionMax
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@conradkz, thanks :) I've gone in detail about this on my tw account and also here on the 25th of Jan, but essentially my bias is the following: -this cycle is composed of series of mini bull cycles within the larger trend. This means big, fast moves to the upside, followed by a long period of correction (change of market structure - like Jun 2019-March 2020) or accumulation(bull market structure remains, but we have long period of ranging PA - like Jan 2021 - Feb 2022) -currently, I believe, we are towards the end of a year-long accumulation period (30-60k). We are getting a reset before another leg up -another bullish argument is the increased amount of stable coins (buying power) pouring in the space - ~ 3 the amount since Jan 2021, while price remains the same