So, something that's starting to take shape here on the 4H chart is this brutal rising wedge right now. I'm not saying I'd be short from here as if this is a rising wedge, we're likely going to rise once more before we fall. So I'd be looking to short right now at around $4550. It's a good level up there, strong resistance from the last bear flag and would be a good spot to start our decent from.
It would also allow for a drop to around $3850 or so to make a higher high off the double bottom and reverse back up from there. There is a chance that we break down from $4220 to around $3800->$4000. The issue with this is I'm not sure $3800 would be enough of a drop after breaking out of a falling wedge. Just doesn't seem like a large enough move. Which would concern me about a potential triple bottom.
So we'll have to see how this all plays out for now. I'm not risking a long or short here right now, would rather see how things play out a bit. A break over $4400 I'd long to $4550 probably. A break below this line, I'd open a short to around 4000ish and then scale in on a long from that $3850 area.
Lastly however, the 'lean' I'd have is short, simply because the 4H indicators are looking fairly bearish here. MACD is curling and threatening to cross down and TTM Squeeze is currently curling down as well. Will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 2-3 days.
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Looks like my lean gut feel was correct. We pushed up this wedge slightly higher and then collapsed out of it overnight. Coming all the way down to $3860. We had a volatile bounce to $4000 again but I'm not entirely sure this isn't just a dead cat bounce. We could be in store for one more test of those $3800 levels.