imagine for a second that there was a massive bitcoin etf coming into the world soon, and you were a large institution. would you rather? A. buy btc for 60k B. buy btc for 25k
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despite the recent price action, and despite all of the "news", a part of me still doesn't feel right about this rally. there's just something really ominous about it, which is hard for me to explain. i've shared my bullish bias on crypto, and i've shared my bearish bias's as well. after weighing the scales, i've got to lean bearish up here - simply because of how corrections work, and the devious market psychology that comes with them.
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i never really did think that the larger wave 4 was in due to the huge time imbalance between w2 and w4. some say that time doesn't matter, but in reality time is all we really got. i'm calling it right now, when btc pokes that upper 57k region, it'll be equivalent of the moment of when the titanic hit that iceberg.
you see, i'm not a bear nor a bull; i'm just that guy who plays a violin on the titanic.
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wave C target = 57658 wave 4 target = 25.5k.
🎻
Comment
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i was about to start playing the violin, but i realized it's still too early Lol.
here's a quick update, If btc breaks above this 0.618% extension, the next target is the 100% extension which sits at 72k. this would give us a simple expanded flat for this larger wave 4 correction.
also, to anyone who thinks i am bearish or whatever, i'm not bearish m8, this is actually incredibly bullish. just because price comes back down to equilibrium, does not mean the world is going to end. this would simply set us up for a massive run to over 200k after ~
i get that the moonbois want that instant gratification of price just going up in a straight line from here with 0 pull backs along the way, but that's just simply not how the markets work. i'm not here to convince anyone that this is what's going to happen, i'm just sharing my thoughts on the market. please don't use my posts as financial advice, i'm just a regular human with some regular ideas - just like you.
Comment
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12% of all the btc longs were dumped today.
the big players are getting ready for what's to come.
Stay safe peoples, and don't forget to set some stop losses ~
this is a reasonable analysis im' sharing as well.
retail sentiment is very greedy.
CFTC leverage fund positions on long/short is 1:5.
BlockFi reserve is on an ultimatively low meaning a lack of institutional interest since march and the later month.
All Exchanges Fund Flow Ratio is on an ultimatively low pointing to less retail volume and larger OTC deals.
the pump spikes we are observing currently are caused by large amount of market trades ( executed within very short time frames (a couple of minutes)
followed by tiny amounts of retail trades. these tether based big market portions of BTC are not transfered from the exchange still sitting there,
meaning possible ready to get sold quite quick and soon.
nevertheless, the future is and will be unwritten.
cr74life3
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lovely stuff completely agree. It hasnt felt right. Nothing like our bullish run up from a year ago. If that was your entry you might have nailed top. And totally as far as etf's are concerned these guys want a discount. People are so irrational in this market. I also noted nearly all of Finex longs were closed. Bit strange not to see them open shorts though.
Eloquent
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@cr74life3, i did catch the top, almost to the penny - but i closed half my short here; i have a feeling we're going to get another high - 58~59ish for one last hurrah before the capitulation begins
it is indeed strange that both longs and shorts are being closed; probably to confuse both bears and bulls :^)
Afterbite
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we should short this puppy
errbuyuyo
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whats your invalidation here
Eloquent
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@errbuyuyo, bearish invalidation for this setup = a daily close above the 0.618% extension
guddathekid
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Hey dude, starting to get ending diagonal vibes on todays action, fractals of 64k/52.9k juju. wonder what you think and always appreciate the insight
Eloquent
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@guddathekid, if that was an ending diagonal, it broke down nicely ^^
v184
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Your prediction is indeed sinking like the "Titanic" 😆 Your title is spot on ;)
retail sentiment is very greedy.
CFTC leverage fund positions on long/short is 1:5.
BlockFi reserve is on an ultimatively low meaning a lack of institutional interest since march and the later month.
All Exchanges Fund Flow Ratio is on an ultimatively low pointing to less retail volume and larger OTC deals.
the pump spikes we are observing currently are caused by large amount of market trades ( executed within very short time frames (a couple of minutes)
followed by tiny amounts of retail trades. these tether based big market portions of BTC are not transfered from the exchange still sitting there,
meaning possible ready to get sold quite quick and soon.
nevertheless, the future is and will be unwritten.