Hello dear crypto friends, hope you're doing well guys! ;)
After the false break at 10,8 BTC saw a huge sell off. One of our Slack group members asked if it was manipulation. I'm gonna give you the same answer here: Any move in this market, any big decision, is made by institutionals, by bigger pockets. They'll give the direction, and retail traders will follow. In that sense everything is a 'manipulation' ;) => Our job is always to follow the whales, in order to make our profit as small fish! ;)
The sell off didn't come immediately: We could see the failing follow-through of the bulls with a very nice Doji & Evening Star reversal: If you got triggered into a position at 10,820 as I was, you had plenty of time, even an Hourly higher Low, to let yourself stop out at almost break-even.
What is the stage now?
BTC sneaked back into the Equilibrium range of the previous Bull Flag, but the burden of proof is on the bulls: They have to hold the bottom at 10,4k in order to see continuation.
On the Daily chart, we have the psychology of an inverse H&S through the U-turn, even though the right shoulder is clearly one floor above the potential left shoulder:
=> All in all, it is about seeing a clear break above 10,8 for the bulls to basically come to the important highs on the Weekly *MAJOR* Bull Flag that we had analyzed on Friday:
If we can end the Weekly candle with the current price action, the bulls will have the chance to further tighten & eventually break the Bull Flag with the target of All Time Highs. The bear break case will come at 9,5.
If you had some value from my analysis, give it a thumbs-up & comment it, because the mechanism shows my analysis to other people then. Make also sure to follow me so you get notified on my analyses! I wish you a good trading! :)
Edgy is providing online education only. We are not a financial advisor, nor do we hold any formal qualifications in this area. You're trading at your own risk. No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. Please be aware, that you can lose all your money on the online exchanges.
We have a broadenning bullish triangle on the price
Broadening bullish wedge on H4 RSI
Golden cross EMA H4
Edgy_
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@Maped, Thx for sharing buddy. Feel free to post your chart next time! ;) much easier to compare what you're talking about.
wargolynch
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@Edgy_, Lol the moderation did not approve my first message with the chart !
We pay Premium and Pro+ membership but we are still considered spammers if we post two times the same chart in the same minute on two different ideas ><
@Edgy_, With nice H12 candle and VWEMA + VWMA 25 still holding on the Daily chart :)
Edgy_
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@Maped, Awesome, thx for sharing. My feedback for you: Don't overcomplicate it! ;) you're all over the chart with the indicators. Focus much more on *horizontal S&R zones* and try to understand the simple price action that is going on. => You'll be amazed how often the market reacts to those, as opposed to some 'widening triangles & wedges' that almost no one has on his rather. You want to see what *the others* are seeing my man! ;)
wargolynch
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@Edgy_, I don't overcomplicate it man don't worry !
For horizontal S/R levels I'm using Monthly, Weekly and Daily pivots, with S/R levels activated. I have different templates for different timelapes, with different pivots, to keep a cleaner chart.
A pivot point is simple : the monthly pivot is just the average previous month price, for exemple, but I think you already know it !
These are extremely important horizontal levels and this is my first indicator :)
Also using Volume profile to catch old levels :)
Unlike most of these people with the indicators all over the chart, I exactly know how to read each of them, I seriously know my stuff no worries :)
Like some people will talk about oscillators normal divergences, but they just don't know at all about hidden divergences ! Which is a not good since sometimes they are clearly more important than normal div on the chart.
This is how someone will get biased
They are not successfull because they believe they know how to read indicators when they are not
Another exemple : the weekly MACD went bearish recently.
But if we look at BTC history since 2010, it's always a buying signal
MACD reaching 0 level is like RSI reaching 50, neutral zone. Every time since 2010, the W price bounces when MACD goes bearish !
And yet you can see people calling sub 6k because of the bearish MACD lol
Same goes for patterns, some people use them the wrong way : you'll see lot of harmonic patterns projection on TV, with people calling the completion of the pattern... But WTF ? the goal is to get a target when it is validated, not a target to validate it ><
(not talking about people doing projection and mentioning IT IS a projection, of course ! there is a nuance)
I'm not like this
I don't consider TA as a full auto realization strategy, we won't agree on this but that's ok. I know another good trader who 100% believe in autorealization, we never did agree but we're both successfull.
Broadening triangles and wedges are just the illustration of price action. They represent compression and decompression, it's very simple
Read about broadening wedges for exemple, look for them on the chart from now, you'll see how it's a powerfull pattern, even if most people don't know it ! Same goes for the Chuvashov Fork pattern, extremly powerfull !
Of course, we'll wait for pattern confirmation, this is why I'm saying "potential pattern". Because it's not a pattern until it's validated, I'm just considering it for the moment.
Thanks for your time by the way, I'm trying myself to teach people when I have time, this way everybody can discuss and hopefull make more profits in the future :)
wargolynch
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@Edgy_, Don't pay attention to my old ideas lol, back in the time I was clearly all over the place with indicators I did not understand haha