---- EDIT: Title should say "BTC" not "BCT" ---- Here's a simple fan chart following trend from Jan which shows target to 250 level by mid-Summer. There are just too many bag holders at this time and level to give any hope until Despair mode is over. Again, look to short any bounces and/or go long any dramatic down-swings... but be careful holding anything long for long.
This is not so much a statistical analysis... but more a feeling for investor psychology and history. Charles MacKay's 1841 "Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" -- audio book: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzAFF9gZQ9M -- is probably the best and earliest work -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_Popular_Delusions_and_the_Madness_of_Crowds -- Of course, anything can happen, say Paypal adds Bitcoin as a payment option and we're back on our way to 10,000. I hope this happens soon... but it more likely that between now and then we'll see more downward movement to fulfill the historical asset bubble cycle.