Are Bitcoin and Commodities Rising from the Israel-Hamas War?

Factors Affecting Price:

Bitcoin has historically been bullish in the month of October with green monthly candles for 8 out of the 10 last years in the month of October (80% probability). October of 2023 has also been extremely bullish with a lot of hype surrounding the Bitcoin ETF. However, commodities such as GOLD and Silver (SLV) also had significant spikes over this same time period. I think that Bitcoin is also benefitting from the Israel-Hamas War, and that this conflict is contributing to Bitcoin's rise in value. Bitcoin shares a lot of similarities with GOLD and SLV due to their store of value. Fiat currencies around the globe are also at risk due to high U.S. debt, irresponsible spending from the U.S. government, and the higher interest rate environment.

Bitcoin's Price Action:
Bitcoin has been pretty bearish since the highs in mid July, and has started a strong upward rally shortly after the Israel-Hamas conflict. This date is marked by an orange circle, and a similar rally can be found on GOLD and Silver. It seems that the war is helping to drive up the price of Bitcoin and commodities.

Key Price Levels:
The two yellow trendlines at $30.7k and $34.8k are key resistance levels. BTC easily broke through $30.7k, but has been suppressed by the $34.8k resistance line.

If BTC does break above the $34.8k resistance line, my key price target is the light blue trend line. This price target increases over time so this prolonged sideways price action will lead to a higher price target if BTC does continue this bullish momentum. If BTC pulls back, I would look for a bounce around $30.7k on the way down.

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