a break below the logarithmic trendline usually means an extended period of consolidation/retracement, as we saw for most of 2018. i've projected that same pattern here which would bring us into january 2022 (**i have no basis for doing this, i just think it's fun**). i don't think we've fully broken down out of the trend yet, but we're awfully close.
some people like comparing this to the mid-bull market correction back in 2013, but i think it's harder to compare when the market cap is 300x what it was then. 2017 was more in the ballpark. obviously i don't think price will follow this exact pattern, but i do think it's reasonable to expect something similar unless bulls make some sort of miraculous recovery here (or the whales pull the strings).
in my mind, the real question is: which direction will price break after consolidation around 30k?
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for reference: if you zoom out, you can see the origin of this white dotted trendline
price will probably continue down to the mid to low 20k range, slowly, before coming out of this. I fully expect the run to resume by the end of the year. The trend we have been on has been an average of the last two cycles in percentage terms and I don't expect that to change, if we go much lower than 19k it would break my model tho
reees
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@qofdeath, that's sort of what my gut is telling me too (not sure if it's just the perma-bull in me). but for sure i'll be buying the world between 20k-30k and hoping the bull trend continues this year. if not... i'll keep buying
CryptoidiotQ
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@reees, Yea, I'm waiting till at least 25k to start buying more. I feel like the bottom here can't be much lower than 22-24k, but It could always be misguided optimism from trading extremely successfully on my model for the past 2 cycles. Regardless, even if the worst happens and we see a full 85% bear market correction to around 10k, It won't be that long till the next run, so I won't be too sad at buying in around 25k
Berkley101
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ever heard ot the 4year btc cycle? read it and your whole chart gets blown away...
reees
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@Berkley101, lol yes i'm aware of the 4 year cycle, but i don't think we'll be so tightly bound to it going forward (as each halving gets us closer to total supply, it becomes less significant). there is growing support for the theory of lengthening cycles, which also makes sense to me, but i do think we'll get at least one more pump from the 2024 halving:
@Berkley101, lol thanks. minus the fact that i accidentally said 2024 instead of 2025, which is where the bull run would likely end. but only time will tell!