I am starting to see several things pointing towards a bottom around September 2020 around $1900. 1: Weekly falling wedge that should conclude around September 2: 1.61 extension from 2019 Top (June) to 2019 Bottom (Dec) points to $1907 3: Horizontal support from July 2017 at $1900 4: I have the S&P charted to bottom right around the same time frame as well.
Trading underneath the weekly 100 SMA (Simple Moving Average) is also looking very bearish as well. I will be watching for Bitcoin to break out of this falling wedge pattern. If it does break out to the upside then we will likely rise for a few weeks and then back test the trend line from top side. I would not consider a break out to be off to the races quite yet. Especially since I am also charting the S&P 500 to be bottoming around the same time frame.
I will be watching for a long term entry position for accumulating Bitcoin around $1900, and judging from this chart, I believe that will be near September of 2020.
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The comments have helped me realize that I my chart may be misleading as to what I think is going to play out. As an update, this is a little closer to how I think this will go.
I'd say there is about a 0 chance of BTC price staying withing that channel until September. With halving coming up - are you kidding?
Crypto-Whisperer
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@FreedomHouse, from my description "I will be watching for Bitcoin to break out of this falling wedge pattern. If it does break out to the upside then we will likely rise for a few weeks and then back test the trend line from top side."
I think we will break out, especially since tether just printed about another 1.5 billion tethers. We will probably top out in May/June. Then we back test from the top side.
@Crypto-Whisperer, It's possible. Might be a good to have a little extra dollars in case it happens. But I wouldn't sell everything at 8k to buy back in at 2k. Because the chances of it taking off to 14k without ever seeing 6k again are significant. Charts don't make the decisions, people do.
Crypto-Whisperer
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@FreedomHouse, I agree 100%. I have a HODL stash that I don't sell no matter how smart I think I am. A close above the weekly 55 SMA and I will change my position to long term bullish.
I also agree that people make decisions. Fundamentally, I think a lot of out of work HODLers are going to become desperate sellers during a major deflationary spiral in the equities markets. Oil market is fucked, municipal/state tax revenue is done for so those jobs will be lost, and the service and retail industry are not available to fall back on.
On top of that, we haven't even begun to see the defaults in the real estate and debt markets blow up yet. That destroys money faster than it can be loaned out from the banks. That means dollars are scarce and thus rising in value.
I see the dollar going on a massive spike upward as people flee to it out of fear of stocks and real estate. The Federal reserve will devalue the dollar massively in response to this, but it will be a response. Inflation (or Hyperinflation) will set in AFTER everything drops in price, not before.
@Crypto-Whisperer, I would agree that things will get worse. Right now people are still in denial and hoping that things will get better soon because they think it is all about the virus, meanwhile it has little to do with the virus and a lot to do with underlying issues. So I actually do agree that we will likely see some sort of sell off after halving in May or June. I'm just not sure It will be so extreme that it would bring us to 2k. I was thinking more in the 4-6k area. But you make some good points about how desperate it is going to get. I do believe that we are headed into a depression the likes we have never seen in our life times. BUT, I assumed that big money players would scoop up cheap Bitcoin once it heads lower, especially after halving. Not sure if big money would allow Bitcoin to get so low as 2k before buying. I would think demand will meet supply and outstrip supply around 4k or higher. There are big money players out there who will have millions to spend despite a great recession. Some people have unlimited pockets. Also if BTC did reach 2k I would think it wouldn't stay there for too long.
FreedomHouse
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@Crypto-Whisperer, Oh never mind, a weekly close above 55 SMA. I missed that.