You've heard it so many times "greedy when others are fearful", but fear takes hold and sways your judgement.
What are the common sense clues?
The talking heads are trying to "call" the recession before it happens simply for an "I told you so" moment, but where were they before 2008 and earlier?
Why can't we make some serious profits after 10 years of an absolute garbage economy?
Headlines for the past two years have been all about Elon's gaffs
Very few called the recent FANG "crash"
All of the technicals are moving in the right direction
Fundamentals are easy... when EVERYONE is calling for a recession, we know the opposite will unfold
FINALLY: Show me an historical All Time High back to the great depression, then show me breaking that ATH, finding support, and it not creating a new bull run. The trend is your friend and stocks are in full bull mode with no signs of reversal.
I've got news for you...There's no more debt available to spur the market without having severe asset inflation, as seen in the market left in our rear-view mirror. This economy is over. They're screaming recession because for the first time, everyone is aware that everyone is f---ing broke, and the fake economic numbers are not fooling anyone any longer. I pulled out in January, and I still don't regret it. I thought I would back in May, but I trusted my abilities and my experience and stayed the hell out. This is done.
racethehare
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@thehoplite, yes, it was the same scenario in the 80's. Let's see how it plays out this time
Kp15460
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@mattrl, difference was interest rates were in double digits in 80's. Market is floundering at 2-3% now. Fed has to raise rates so they have the tool of reducing rates when recession hits. There is no buy volume down here, there will be no trade deal, and 2018 consisted of companies using trump tax cuts to buy back stocks.
racethehare
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@Kp15460, No buy volume? Interesting you would say then when the DJI just had its fourth BEST day ever, only less than two weeks after DJI's best day EVER. hmmm...
Kp15460
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@mattrl, sure price action went up, but volume hasn't. The trend is still down until it's not. Do you trade based on technical analysis or best/worst days? Fomo buying institutional bags. No fundamentals to support price action. 9 year uptrend on decreasing volume supported by 0% interest rates and market flounders at 3%. Interest rates were 6% before 2008 and Fed was able to reduce rates to spark reversal. Ultimately, fed needs to raise rates so they can reduce if needed. Market hopium on rate halts(indication of dismal world economy), Faux China Trade Deal(Democrats won't approve anything next 2 years). Lets see 76-88% retracement
TheBadMrFox
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@Kp15460, the
Obama Administration increased the Deficit, not debt, from a reasonable 1.4 trillion combined over every adminsitration.... Now its evident why they did that! They bought the next election! Theyu increased it to 11 TRILLION in ONLY 8 years! And ruined our markets integristy and dollar value and the Crash to come will make the GREAT Depression look like a small toot and people gonna be still pretending maks are helpfull... So, myself and several others have all confirmed that the S&P, along every other Index, is at a rare time in the millenium long bull run where the trend HAS to reverse. It is MAXED to the cent, a 130 year 5-3 Elliot Wave that is weakening to the point of negative beta for the fist time positivly in 13 years- yet- it is still weakening and a Depression, actually long LONG, overdue, is a necessity for our market systems to maintain equilaibrium and seasonality and a Bear/Bull trend pattern that would need to - at the VERY LEAST - be able to extend 3 (or 5, but it is SU
PER weak as it is, Divergence city on every index. The
VIX has calls ITM up to 35 in like JUNE only and I cant even unload puts under 40 on any expiration chart. This is a good thing. our dollar needs to regain value, the "emergin markets" and commodities like gold, crude, all sorts of unusual crap, the LARGER the chop since the last... 2007ish, the bigger the pump- but no dump. Dow theory and hirsch cyclyes - seasonlaity- the buying pressure isnt there...our market must "accumulatt" and give some wind to the bears sails, some never having a bullish week in 130 yeras. and the higher the historical price, the better. All the right volume, open int. and volatility moves, huge positive divergences, harmonic scythe patterns to the downside- this is the 8th cycle of it's entire existince where it would be in a drop.. i mean imagine what it would look like too? No. Its done. it makes no sense.We need to reinflate our Dollars value and give some cash flow into our backbone to be able to remain bullish ina new industrial revolution.
Do you guys really think thats possible? The 3x leverage dBeata short is even cranking waves up for the first time in 13 years...
TheBadMrFox
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@TheBadMrFox, Also, the ranges are moving like Log(x)where x would be beta, and reaches an increasing negative value.... thats why if you look in Log scale you arent seeing the crazy chop and cash movement into penny stocks and out of blue chips and into Gold, DXY, and the VIX in an unptrend for the fiist time ever. now it will move like (-1) x (10^x) .... weve all seen this beofre in smaller time frames
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Kp15460
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@mattrl, Bull case- If they close monthly DJI over 24400 then new ATH. Also SPY monthly closing above 265 same.
TheBadMrFox
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@thehoplite, So, myself and several others have all confirmed that the S&P, along every other Index, is at a rare time in the millenium long bull run where the trend HAS to reverse. It is MAXED to the cent, a 130 year 5-3 Elliot Wave that is weakening to the point of negative beta for the fist time positivly in 13 years- yet- it is still weakening and a Depression, actually long LONG, overdue, is a necessity for our market systems to maintain equilaibrium and seasonality and a Bear/Bull trend pattern that would need to - at the VERY LEAST - be able to extend 3 (or 5, but it is SU
PER weak as it is, Divergence city on every index. The
VIX has calls ITM up to 35 in like JUNE only and I cant even unload puts under 40 on any expiration chart. This is a good thing. our dollar needs to regain value, the "emergin markets" and commodities like gold, crude, all sorts of unusual crap, the LARGER the chop since the last... 2007ish, the bigger the pump- but no dump. Dow theory and hirsch cyclyes - seasonlaity- the buying pressure isnt there...our market must "accumulatt" and give some wind to the bears sails, some never having a bullish week in 130 yeras. and the higher the historical price, the better. All the right volume, open int. and volatility moves, huge positive divergences, harmonic scythe patterns to the downside- this is the 8th cycle of it's entire existince where it would be in a drop.. i mean imagine what it would look like too? No. Its done. it makes no sense.We need to reinflate our Dollars value and give some cash flow into our backbone to be able to remain bullish ina new industrial revolution.
Do you guys really think thats possible? The 3x leverage dBeata short is even cranking waves up for the first time in 13 years...