Current Situation: Since monthly close, Bitcoin has risen from $7,300 to $7,700. The trend line of the log and non-log chart were broken and even the altcoins look very bullish.
Prediction of others: Almost the entire homepage of Tradingview consists of bullish charts. Many have set the orange support line from my chart so that it looks like we bounced there. Also all mention that we have broken the trend lines. As a result, almost everyone is bullish. If we drop, most would put the orange support line so it fits again.
My last prediction: Since everyone was still very bearish the last 2 days, I switched from bear to bull. My last idea was that we would go up to about $9,500. Now, as previously mentioned, we have risen $400-300. A sweet short term profit. But you can forget that idea again.
My current prediction: Since I never follow the crowd I have changed my mind again. Even though there are many bullish signs, I still see a heavy drop coming in before we go up. Currently, I expect a drop to $6,600 again, which would be under the orange support line. Depending on how the pattern looks and how people react, we could experience a strong upmove again. If we continue to drop, in most cases $6,500 and $6,000 will not last. But that's too far in the future. Should we go up a bit from here and break $8,000 / $7,900 then I'd probably reconsider my opinion. But I do not think this scenario will occur. Not yet.
Final word: Some criticize me for no reason that I change my mind from bearish to bullish. I wonder what your problem is? Since my comeback from mid-May I was almost always right. Since about $9,000 I have published bearish ideas. We went down to $7,000. The day before yesterday I was bullish and we went up about $400-300. So where is the problem? If some of you do not like my ideas then you can go. At the moment I have no added value if I share my ideas. I do it for fun. If I am not having fun anymore then I can take a break or stop. I make my money when I trade and not when I publish charts right now. Besides, you do not have to remind me of my mistakes from before. At one idea, I once told you that when I come back, I'll be better than ever. So it should not interest anyone what was before, especially since I was just right the last few days. I wonder how many bought at $7,800 because everyone thought we would bounce there. Whole Tradingview consisted of this idea. What happened? I warned you and we dropped another 10%. But you do not have to follow my ideas if you do not agree with them. I just say what I see and try to give you advices like: do the opposite what others say. I do not want to say that I'm perfect and always right. I also make mistakes but if I make them I always try to warn you before it gets worse. There are some here in Tradingview who do not post anything for a long time after a wrong chart. At the end you decide what you do with your money. I'm even happy if I can help one person with my experience. That's it from me.
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Short update: If this week is bullish, then we could even go up to $8,400/8,200 before we drop heavily. So watch out. A more detailed update will come today or tomorrow.
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Short update: I better wait before posting because the situation is very complicated. Although people are posting bullish charts on Tradingview, the shorts are going up a lot as the longs drop. Mostly, the shorts should drop when correcting again. Time will tell us.
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Short update: I looked again briefly and it looks like short term most people are bearish on Tradingview. That would also explain the dramatic increase in shorts. Compared to the altcoins it is very likely that we will go up again and test the top.
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Short update: I'm sorry for the many updates that will be my last. Since someone asked if it would be advisable to buy now I can only say that you should rather wait. You can lose very fast here. In the end it is your decision what you do. This is the first time in a long time where I find it difficult to say what happens. For now I am still bearish.
There's nothing wrong in changing direction or becoming neutral if the market indicates that. Actually it's a right thing to do. It's sad that it is often regarded as some kind of weakness on TW.
I also agree with betting against the crowd. Usually people preach what their pos already is and what they want to believe, and so it's good to know on which side there are more nervous stops and if 90% are already long on market then where's the new demand going to come?
In addition - since most people by nature are unable to be bearish they are really perma-bulls. So for any fame hungry analyst on TW is better of being bullish and draw "adjusted of orange support line" and bring out this fantastic log scale chart from 2014-2018 and refer to huge bull triangle forming :)