2026 sees the midterm election over in the USA, these midterms seem to have an adverse effect on the bitcoin price as you can see from what I've drawn.
I've looked back to the last 2 midterms, 2018 and 2022 and both have the same conclusion, large drawdowns. 2018 saw an 84% price decrease on bitcoin and in 2022 a 77% decrease, if we say the drawdowns are decreasing by 7% from the last 2, then we could see a drawdown of 70% from our $126k top to around $38k area. These drawdowns also seems to start around a year prior to the midterms give or take a month or 2.
This isn't any guarantee, this is theory but the theory seems to be at this point rhyming, we could of course go lower than 70% or we could bounce on any good news from anywhere, you all know how this works, but this is just my idea, I've also added a harmonic into this drawdown, but we could also be looking at an ABCD correction.
I didn't want to add to many drawings onto the chart, I try and keep these clean of other distractions, but there is an ABCD corrective harmonic in there. You can also draw these drawdowns on the S&P and the NAS, they also have something similar but not as deep as the bitcoin corrections.
Just a little more info, we have 2 CME gaps on the 4hr chart 1 being between $39,450 and $39,350, the other is lower (I personally don't think we'll hit it, but posting for reference) this is at $21,110 and $20,145
As always, this isn't financial advice, this is my personal idea of how I'm looking at things from my perspective......
I've looked back to the last 2 midterms, 2018 and 2022 and both have the same conclusion, large drawdowns. 2018 saw an 84% price decrease on bitcoin and in 2022 a 77% decrease, if we say the drawdowns are decreasing by 7% from the last 2, then we could see a drawdown of 70% from our $126k top to around $38k area. These drawdowns also seems to start around a year prior to the midterms give or take a month or 2.
This isn't any guarantee, this is theory but the theory seems to be at this point rhyming, we could of course go lower than 70% or we could bounce on any good news from anywhere, you all know how this works, but this is just my idea, I've also added a harmonic into this drawdown, but we could also be looking at an ABCD correction.
I didn't want to add to many drawings onto the chart, I try and keep these clean of other distractions, but there is an ABCD corrective harmonic in there. You can also draw these drawdowns on the S&P and the NAS, they also have something similar but not as deep as the bitcoin corrections.
Just a little more info, we have 2 CME gaps on the 4hr chart 1 being between $39,450 and $39,350, the other is lower (I personally don't think we'll hit it, but posting for reference) this is at $21,110 and $20,145
As always, this isn't financial advice, this is my personal idea of how I'm looking at things from my perspective......
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Something else I've noticed just from looking at the chart, if you look back on the weekly from 2020 to 2022 and then from 2024 to now you'll see the similar pattern has formed, at this point I don't believe we're going straight down, I think we'll have a bounce from around $49,500 maybe into $85-$87k, we still have 8 months or so of price action to reach the potential goal.......
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.