user100000
Long

diagonal update

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1696 54 7
not much has changed. wave 4 is taking more time because of the recent low. i've relabeled the recent move up as an x-wave. wave 5 may start soon
rivet.popper
2 years ago
Thanks. Hope the big ride up is coming soon. We don't have much time until the 9th...
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viajero rivet.popper
2 years ago
Don't smoke too much opium! It's bad for your net worth!
+2 Reply
rivet.popper viajero
2 years ago
You're an idiot dude. Go away unless you have something constructive to say.
+1 Reply
MoonTrader rivet.popper
2 years ago
You want to be constructive? Stop telling people it's going to the moon right when it's about to crash.
+3 Reply
rivet.popper MoonTrader
2 years ago
You have no idea what it's about to do and neither do we. Not long ago you were bullish as hell and waiting for some crazy moon cycles to get long. Who are you to tell him what he can do?
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MoonTrader rivet.popper
2 years ago
When was that? At least I change my views over time based on new information that comes in.
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rivet.popper MoonTrader
2 years ago
Here, you went on about lunar action:
Daily breakdown retest due


Is that any weirder than Elliot Wave, which is actually used by top traders and market analysts?
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MoonTrader rivet.popper
2 years ago
Who cares? The difference is I'm open to changing my interpretation based on new information.
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rivet.popper MoonTrader
2 years ago
Not sure about how open you are. You certainly have a lot of time to rag on those with differing opinions.
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MoonTrader rivet.popper
2 years ago
I'm just saying, his ideas are wrong a lot. If you're just investing, then what's the point in posting these trades if they don't work?
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rivet.popper MoonTrader
2 years ago
He's not posting trades. He's posting probable directions for future price based on Elliot Wave.
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MoonTrader rivet.popper
2 years ago
Exactly. And they don't work, so what's the point?
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ChartArt MoonTrader
2 years ago
From my profile:

"The point about a prediction is not that it’s true. A prediction is either a warning or a hope. Predictions should never claim to be true. But you can claim they are possibilities that there is something you ought to think about.” - Freeman Dyson
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Lanmar PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
The problem isn't using Elliot or being wrong - both are perfectly ok. The problem is he's using Elliot with made up/random formatting and adjusts his analysis toward his unrelenting bias. User100000 has zero objectivity in his analysis. If it breaks a trend he creates a new chart and to make it fit with his belief that bitcoin will go much higher, which is damn dangerous to do in this game. Bottom line, if bitcoin goes to 75, User10000 will probably draw a line below it and somehow indicate that it's a wave 4 or whatever, and it's a major buying opportunity. His analysis is the same as me making the Fibonacci ratio 84.5 instead of .618. He has no idea how to read a chart. Period.
+7 Reply
rivet.popper MoonTrader
2 years ago
And anyway arguing about calls is a waste of time. He and I are investors and aren't picking spots to go in and out of trades. We are watching for places to get in and hold.
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Balancepumps MoonTrader
2 years ago
I said I too once. and they gave me the troll when I said that we were in time bear.
read:
ending

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rivet.popper Balancepumps
2 years ago
Yes he should explain that.
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viajero rivet.popper
2 years ago
i thought i was constructive?! let me try again:

D O N ' T S M O K E T O O M U C H H O P I U M!

ALL his past predictions were wrong and based on wrong assumptions but he just keeps repeating his moon talk. how fucking blind and stubborn can one individual possibly be?!
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boblovelily5597464 viajero
2 years ago
wakaka ,he is idiot
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viajero rivet.popper
2 years ago
ahhh, and here is some more constructiveness from a while ago:
Down to 200


this prediction actually turned out to be true. not like this retarded moon talk shit from user10000
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viajero viajero
2 years ago
Hopium.... Damn auto correction
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MoonTrader
2 years ago
lol no freaking way
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Eboard10
2 years ago
IMO, your 1-2-3 may very well turn out to be an A-B-C corrective wave and we'll soon end up revisiting the previous low.
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rivet.popper Eboard10
2 years ago
It all depends on whether you think the bottom definitively came in at 152 or not.
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Eboard10 rivet.popper
2 years ago
The rise from 150 to 300 looks a lot more like a corrective wave than an impulsive one. Moreover, I haven't identified another wave 3-4 of the last leg down starting at 454. The 150-300 move fits very nicely as a wave 4. We could see a wave 5 failure as it stops around 130-135 (88.6% retracement of larger degree extended wave III).
+1 Reply
rivet.popper Eboard10
2 years ago
It is a judgment call. At some point we have to make a decision and take a risk. That's why the payouts are high if you're right! Here's to me being right... :-)
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Eboard10 rivet.popper
2 years ago
It's not about being right, it's about being able to read the charts objectively. There are currently two possibilities, one being that we have one last move down as a wave 5 that should bring us to circa 130 and possibly as far down as 90, while the other count would have us bottomed at 150 and the current corrective move being a corrective wave from the 310 top.
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rivet.popper Eboard10
2 years ago
Meaning we can go up or down? Nothing new about that. I saw despair in January. And 2014 was a simply a bucket of shit for BTC. I say the bear has died but it doesn't realize it yet.
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Eboard10 rivet.popper
2 years ago
No, meaning that we will go down. The only unknown so far is whether we will go under 150 or not.
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Balancepumps
2 years ago
ahahahaha oh shit....
no no no :(
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Balancepumps
2 years ago
elliot is turning in his grave my friend.
give yourself to horse racing;)
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ChartArt Balancepumps
2 years ago
The problem of Elliot Wave is that is was invented in the 1920s before robotic trading and digitial currencies invented out of software code became a thing.

I think the basic ideas of Elliot Wave could are good, but the accuracy is not the best. Markets tend to stay irrational longer than Elliot Wave already show a turning point.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper ChartArt
2 years ago
I still think we hit bottom at 152. If that i the case, then EW will predict how we go up...
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MashuriClark rivet.popper
2 years ago
Sentiment is an important part of EW theory. Personally, I don't think sentiment is low enough yet (we're close though). When we get to the point where anyone who even suggests investing in bitcoin gets crucified, then it's time to buy.
+1 Reply
MashuriClark MashuriClark
2 years ago
From Prechter's site: https://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2015/01/15/A-Bitcoin-Warning-The-Digital-Currency-Takes-a-Tumble.aspx
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rivet.popper MashuriClark
2 years ago
Thanks for that link. That is what I mean by a constructive comment.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper rivet.popper
2 years ago
And incidentally I agree that sentiment is low among traders, but it is high among BTC industry and venture capitalists. So it depends what hype you're looking at.
+1 Reply
Lanmar PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
What are you talking about? Have you ever looked at a chart from the 1920's? Shuffle a daily between today and 100 years ago - we'll see if you see any difference.
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ChartArt Lanmar
2 years ago
I'm talking about patterns and cycles.

Crypto-currency cycles are very different to classic stocks. Just my personal observance. I see a big difference there.
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Lanmar PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
I agree that bitcoin's price action is much more intense on a percentage basis than most securities. There's several reasons for it. One, the float is very small. Second, the emotional aspect and lack of transparency with bitcoin contributes to its volatility. There is a lot more psychological motivation when investing in bitcoin than something like Apple which is driven by earnings. But one thing bitcoin and every asset that can possibly be charted have in common is price action. It's absolutely always the same. If your own life was charted it would look like a stock. Go to school, you're in consolidation, graduate and get a job you breakout. Your business fails and you break to the downside. Patterns and cycles are the same no matter what.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper Lanmar
2 years ago
You have to admit though that there is an enormous amount of money being thrown at bitcoin businesses and development. This will all be reflected in price as more and more merchants adopt it and consumers start using it. There are macroeconomic things at play such as Russia, Grexit and the breakdown of the Eurozone that may have bullish factors too. Just because price is down now doesn't mean tomorrow's news won't have an effect to the upside.
+1 Reply
Lanmar PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
I'm actually very bullish on bitcoin over the long term. It'll be right there with gold. Run a correlation study between bitcoin and commodities and you'll find a high coefficient. However, I don't see this happening for a while. When the dollar is king deflation is too. Gold collapsed in 1980, right when the dollar bottomed from it's high during the bretton woods era in 71'. In the 1980's the dollar rose tremendously, making its recent rise look like a speed bump. Every tangible asset denominated in dollars was dead (real estate in the 1980's and commodities were the worst investments). When the dollar fell between 2000 - 2009 gold exploded along with every other commodity and bitcoin blew up (Oil @ 147, Gold at 1923, Bitcoin in the thousands). When the tide turns I'll be bullish on bitcoin, but it will not turn until the dollar is no longer a preferred medium.
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rivet.popper Lanmar
2 years ago
I don't think you should equate correlation with causation. Just because USD was low last time BTC was high doesn't mean there is a direct inverse relationship. That could be coincidence. Don't forget BTC is just getting going, and it is subject to enormous volatility and manipulation, so who knows what causes it to go up right now? Volume is low compared to other commodities so any trader with a 1,000,000 USD can seriously swing the market. And there are lots. Grexit it coming soon, and with it the collapse of the Euro, so I think there will be a rush to USD AND BTC (and gold) at the same time, whichever can be done easiest and with the least commission charge. Time will tell.
+1 Reply
ChartArt Lanmar
2 years ago
I also don't see a bullish care for Bitcoin before 2016. The downtrend is simply too strong. There is no way to escape it anymore. The downtrend of the Bitcoin price in recent quarters is even increasing not slowing down.

Long-term I'm also bullish on Bitcoin.
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MashuriClark Lanmar
2 years ago
Lanmar I would agree with your analysis if BTC and USD were on the same playing field (i.e., trading on the same exchanges with the same amount of capital access), but they are most definitely not. BTC is trading on dodgy, opaque exchanges with strangled liquidity. Treat BTC more as an emerging tech stock that has not IPO'd yet, if that makes sense. Once BTC has spent some time in the major exchanges (or it's liquidity in alternate exchanges catches up), then your macro comparisons should be more applicable.
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Lanmar PRO MashuriClark
2 years ago
You're largely correct, but the reason we should expect to see an inverse relationship is due to the psychological component. If the dollar weakens significantly then the holders of US dollars will look for another medium to place their capital. Gold and bitcoin trade based on the same phenomenon - distrust in the government backed system and debasement of currency. Could the dollar, bitcoin and gold rally higher together? Absolutely. Correlations change all the time. But look at today's price action... Dollar rallies due to a solid econ report, gold goes down to 1235, bitcoin rallies. Gold and the greenback are still moving inversely. What that has to do with bitcoin? We'll see. Maybe nothing. My argument was never about correlations and how superior they are. My argument is that you cannot argue with price action and recreate your own rules. Trading rules should be based on risk management and strategy. Whether a market breaks down or breaks out is not opinion, it's fact and needs to be looked at objectively.
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rivet.popper Lanmar
2 years ago
I get you. I guess in the end you have to just decide whether it will go up or go down. I think we've seen panic and despair in Jan 2015 and that the bottom came in. Never know what's going to happen. Whether User100000's EW analyses are accurate or not is a secondary thing for me as an investor. I'm just looking for relative timing and how long to hold. Macro factors are out of our control once we've made our choice.
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ChartArt Lanmar
2 years ago
Bitcoin is the opposite of a intransparent.
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
... currency
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MashuriClark ChartArt
2 years ago
Bitcoin is transparent, but the BTC/USD exchanges are far from it. MtGox was running a fractional reserve on USD which greatly distorted the market.
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zmm20
2 years ago
Wow, good luck with this lol
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rivet.popper
2 years ago
Ok here we are on the 7th and nothing doing. No way is there time to do an a-b-c wave going up 150 bucks within 48 hours. Timing needs to be pushed forward to encompass the critical Greece news occurring on Feb 11th.
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jfun rivet.popper
2 years ago
this chart no longer says the 9th..
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rivet.popper jfun
2 years ago
Correct. The timing change wasn't mentioned in the caption so I didn't see the new date.
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