4xForecaster
Short

$BTC Completes WW/Geo; Eyes Bearish Targets | #bitcoin #bitstamp

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Friends,

Look for this high-probability 1-4 Line validation as this Wolfe Wave/Geo completes, combined with a Fibonacci contraction levels one might consider using as supportive target definition:


snapshot



David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----


.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
29 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Price carved out a low, stomped at the potent 2-4 Line:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
29 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Look for that MOST conservative entry, as price converts the 2-4 Line from a "support-turned-resistance" element - Partial entry at GREEN and complementary entry at ORANGE is one method to secure added profits, but that's one of many methods for YOU to consider:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
29 AUG 2015 - Tech-Note:

Situational awareness is everything.

In this case, heed this potential level of R/S as well, especially in the conservative entry opp just alluded to above.


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
oldstout 4xForecaster
a year ago
Nice chart. I have similar fibo-targets and price action (with HS). Rising wedge is so obvious:)
I just don't know if my EW count is valid:
5th wave behind us? Time for ABC?

+1 Reply
29 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

2-4 Line continues to impose its R/S effect, limiting any possible upside above it. Look for discreet correlations in RSI for possible breach of the 2-4 Line, although it is expected to remain limited:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
29 AUG 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Here, simply demonstrating RSI's compliance to its discreet (internal) trendline, as price remains subdued to 2-4 Line's influence:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David,

Interesting. What if your 3-4 leg is a 1-2 leg of a smaller Geo and your point 5 is point 3? Your chart is then painting point 4 now. Do you see what I mean?

Rgds
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
a year ago
Hello @eYou - Yes, the fractals of this geometry can be worked to its smallest part, indefinitely:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
Exactly. See also my comment below for an even smaller Geo within this purple box. I can see upside potential in this chart.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
a year ago
Yes, the upside potenital is remains there, again as the fractals can express a larger or smaller geometry off of the same root (... or stalk, if you see the correlation with a cauliflower for instance).

As I demonstrated yesterday, the BARS relative to the 1-3 Line of the 2-4 Line will offer the earliest signal of submission of transgression (here, relative to the 2-4 Line).


David
+1 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you. Great work, as always!
+2 Reply
29 AUG 2015 - Tech-Note:

For those seeking symmetrical confluence with Fibonacci level:


snapshot



David
+3 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
David,

Additional comment: Your point 5 is a 5'' for an even smaller Geo where point 1 is the 228.80 level in this chart and your point 4 is point 2. Your green box then retraced to point 3 of this smaller Geo, as expected by your rules.

Rgds.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
a year ago
Yes. Here again, this is the fractal nature of this geometry:


snapshot



David
+3 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
a year ago
Very nice. Interesting to see what price will do now. Thank you for this chart!
+3 Reply
29 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Pressing on down, peeling off of the 2-4 Line:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
29 AUG 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains subdued by the 2-4 Line.

Predictive/Forecasting Model, which I have best calibrated for H4-level frames, is used her to offer qualitative (or "Qual-Target", i.e.: high/low, as well as extreme-high/extreme-low, described as TG-Hi/Lo and TG-Hix/Lox, respectively) targets. These targets are less probable than the quantitative targets (or "Quant-Target", i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... etc).

In this case, there are only TWO Quant-Targets, namely:

1 - TG-Lo = 210.13 - 29 AUG 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 206.84 - 29 AUG 2015


Whereas the Watch Line ("WL") refers to that last tolerance level, which if transgressed, would demand that the Predictive Model be bumped by a factor of 4 in terms of timeframe levels, such that if transgressed here, then it would call our attention to M15 x 4 = H1, or if H1, then H1 x 4 = H4, and on up to H4 x 4 = Daily, and Daily x 4 = Weekl, and finally Weekly x 4 = Monthly timeframes - This is simply how the Predictive/Forecasting Model has been developed.


Looking at the chart, we obtain the following illustrated targets:


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Addendum - The point I am making here is that Fibonacci levels offer a good approximation to establish a probable floor (typically, a minimum of 38.6% retracement is a reasonable, high-probable level, but Bitcoin has moved with great volatility at any frame (whenever it starts moving, that is). So, in this case, I would not be surprised if the Predictive/Forecasting Model would be right, at least down to TG-Lo (remember that, in terms of probability, we would get the following vanishing chance of getting the target hit:

TG-1 > TG-2 > ... TG-n > TG-Lo or TG-Hi > TG-Lox or TG-Hix > WL


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - The range that is defined in the chart (see PINK arrow) represents a "Bearish Entrenchment" - If price reverses, it is likely to encounter the largest bearish pressure at that level, but if transgressed, then any bearish forecast becomes invalidated.


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - In fact, this Bearish Entrenchment compounded with the 2-4 Line would make for a significant bearish confluence:


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
29 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

As price carves out lower-lows, it also remains tethered inside descending channel:


snapshot



David
+3 Reply
29 AUG 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note;

Note the significant differential (over hours) between RSI's trendline breach and price's own break-out - We are simply using the same trendline that was used earlier to signal price's submission to a bearish trend when there whas yet NO defined channel but the RSI has three peaks to define its own resistance:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - Basically, the next "battle" is likely to take place at the pre-defined 233.95/234.87 range:


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
a year ago
David, question: Do you conceive the possibility of validating a 5' or '' at 240 or 258 here? (making the 3 and 5, 1 and 3 of a new geo?
Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
a year ago
Yes, only if the Bearish Entrenchment zone is breached, then it would be important to look at that scenario - Here, the "Zone" would work inversely to the "Watch Line" ("WL"), except that we would not need to shrink timeframe.


David
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
a year ago
Excellent, thanks!

(My current chart:
snapshot
)

I had pending sells in the futures, will be monitoring these developments as you say.
Reply
30 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Price readies for probable 234.87 reach; Overall, bears remain in chart:


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
Comment removed
4xForecaster PRO EliyahuGigi
a year ago
@EliyahuGigi - Thank you. You are looking at a small timeframe here (M15) for the purpose of this geometry.

The longer term forecast, as posted July 07th, is as follows (click on chart for analyses):


$BTCUSD #bitstamp Stomped, Mulls Decline | #bitcoin $BTC #forex



Thank you.


David
+3 Reply
30 AUG 2015 - Tech-Note:


FYI - WW/Geo at M1 level ... Reproducible throughout all frames, like a good little fractal:


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
Comment removed
4xForecaster PRO EliyahuGigi
a year ago
@EliyahuGigi - If you know they are never wrong, then follow their advise.

What I post is simply the result of a method I developed. It's never my opinion, just the method's outcome.


David
+3 Reply
apap100 PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
I'm slowly learning your method and have followed you for a few months, much appreciated! Any pointers welcome! :)
+4 Reply
WenpingGuo apap100
a year ago
me too :) David is a really master!
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Follow-Up on M1:

Not a good example of the Geo's Off-Set Rule, since it really did not completely touch the level 5' level. Still, there is a geometric compensation occurring here that may justify the short-fall to the 1-4 Line:


snapshot



David
+4 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS
a year ago
weekends are low with volume with BTC, but I am sure that your target of 213 will be reached in time within the next 12hours
Reply
30 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Bears keep on frackin':


snapshot



David
+4 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
a year ago
Ha! Excellent. :D
+1 Reply
bitsunrise IvanLabrie
a year ago
Let's Go! Again! :D
+2 Reply
pitaluga 4xForecaster
a year ago
thanks for the update
+1 Reply
WenpingGuo 4xForecaster
a year ago
dear David, any update on the trend? seems not likely to drop
Reply
02 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

No change in forecast; Price remains stuck in redundant geometries:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
a year ago
Stuck in limbo, waiting for some fundamental catalyst perhaps?
Reply
timwest PRO
a year ago
Does the strength of bitcoin give you any indications that the market is stronger than you thought and that it could muster a rally?
+6 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP timwest
a year ago
(I did cancel my pending shorts above) Holding BTC at the moment.
+3 Reply
BuyBitcoin.WS timwest
a year ago
Hey Tim I have been using your method in charting with my own. Right now BTC is consolidating in a tight range for 21 days, Sept 8 will be the 21st day where I will expect a big major move up or down (to $160 then $68 then up back to $110) and by big I am talking $100-150 move. Since we are spending lots of time under the old mode of $233-238 were bearish unless BTC can pull back up in the next few days to that level and above it preferably to be bullish again. However were also spending lots at the lower mode $220-225. In my opinion BTC is not stronger than before and a rally is very unlikely unless we get another ponzi.

I had a good short from 230 that I dropped, right now waiting to see if we head to 210 to get bearish confirmation, then i can find a short entry.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO timwest
a year ago
Hello @timwest,

The market remains in a controlled decline.


snapshot



1 - Modules I and II fell by the same percentage, before reacting to a rally, yet carving a lower high;
2 - Module III fell at 75% of Modules I & II - This may represent a deceleration in the rate of decline, but it remains that it is carving a net bearish lower high relative to prior structures;
3 - Price remains tethered in the 233/223 sideways corridor


OVERALL:

The moves remain net negative against a decelerating rate of decline. A pattern may emerge, such as a nascent Gartley, origination from Point-5 of the Geo in the chart, but only a Butterfly might give it flight, as it would express a different mood that the current overhead 233 interdiction.


snapshot




David
+8 Reply
04 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

This Gartley is now getting high-probability marks from the Model. Bears await at the 234 vicinity.


snapshot



Overall outlook remains in favor of bears. Watch out.


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
05 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


Price reached its probable forecast range, dwelled there for fourteen M-15 candles. Bulls could wage another advance, but this remains a predominant bearish territory - Look for a Gartley-to-Butterfly transformation if such attempt were to materialize.


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
05 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$BTC #bitstamp: Is "Two Four Two for Two" the wings that'd give it flight? WW emerges:

snapshot


#bitcoin $BTC $USD #forex


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
a year ago
Nice David, that was my original target for a short entry. I'll give it a go. Thanks ;)
Reply
06 SEP 2015 - Chart update:

Price completes Bearish Butterfly; Forecast remains near-complete, pending; Retracement should be Fib-paced with 38.6% standing as highest probability:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
06 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


Target hit after Butterfly Pattern completes ... Bearish. Background geometry relies on Geo's Off-Set Rule:


snapshot



David
+6 Reply
WenpingGuo 4xForecaster
a year ago
the retracement is weak. could go higher I guess.
Reply
07 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
BitProf 4xForecaster
a year ago
Hi David, Would you say that the bearish butterfly is invalidated now?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO BitProf
a year ago
Yes, I would have been kicked out of position by now for sure.

David
+2 Reply
MoonTrader 4xForecaster
a year ago
So does that mean it's bullish now?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO MoonTrader
a year ago
If you are trading at this timeframe, I would agree.

However, I am not so sure at the level where it might matter the most, which is the level I would consider to be at the H4 timeframe.

What I have posted thus far was an attempt at correlating the Geo/WW with the prospect of a bearish move. However, the bears have lost their handle on this particular M15 level, which is a very difficult level to use in any longer-term prospect (most retail-level traders live at the M5/M15/H1 level, some at the H4, but from H4 to daily/weekly levels, only the heavier players control these higher frames).

Rule is, if a M5 level fails to move in the anticipated direction, then expect higher-level players (i.e.: institutional-level players , typically well-funded enough to move price against retail traders).

Obviously, the mere use of market patterns, such as patterns, even the Geo, are not always consistent to measure these moves. Even the Predictive/Forecasting Model I use is really best calibrated at the H4 level.

If price moves any higher, I would recommend the BTC trader to consider what is happening at the higher frames, not just at the H1, but more particularly at the H4 and higher levels. The prior chart I have posted remains bearish, which is the measure I keep in my directional bias. Right now, a push to the upside would still not make this a bullish chart if considering these H4 and above timeframes. So, be careful about considering any significant rallying for the time being.

If price were to push any higher in a sustained, coordinated manner, look for real impulses, and only enter at the break of a new high.

Here is what the H4 chart looks like at this time, which is predominantly bearish:


snapshot


In that chart, even a move up to 295 would still not make it a bull at the institutional level. Institutions, not retailers, control price in this or any other chart. So beware.


David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Typo: "Rule is, if a M5 level fails to ... " should read M15, not M5.

David
+2 Reply
MoonTrader 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thanks! At the very least, I would think there should be a retracement back to the $220s soon.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO MoonTrader
a year ago
Looking at it through the original H4 chart (dissected down to H1 in terms of Elliott Wave analysis), it might be more like 178 - Current levels is at significant technical hurdle - See chart in the WEEKLY thread for more details on this.


David
+2 Reply
WenpingGuo 4xForecaster
a year ago
if the move could not trigger another big rally, it will turn down soon.
Reply
WenpingGuo WenpingGuo
a year ago
snapshot


This is my chart. I guess the uptrend is finished now. it is time to see if 1480 will touched. if not the big bear trend could be reversed.
Reply
09 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

At this M15 level, failure to rally above this bearish entrenchment (pink arrow-down) would maintain validation of original target - Lots of bull/bear fighting going on at these levels, so price consolidation and time-consumptive geometries are expected in this environment - The larger timeframe is what I rely upon to base the bull/bear bias, as the Predictive/Forecasting Model is calibrated for H4 level. This "Model" remains bearish for the time being:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+5 Reply
10 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


Watch for this potential WW/Geo - Bearish trench remains in force overhead (pink down-arrow)

snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
ADDENDUM - Tech-Note:

Remember that IF we are dealing with a Geo, then there are certain internal geometric requirements that have to be met, one of which is a complex 3-4 Leg construction, such that two swings are TYPICALLY connected by an intermediate ZZ - See chart:

snapshot



This would thus force the replacement of Point-5 into Point-3, and Point-5 would rest further up there, near the Bearish entrenchment that was pre-defined - This is one of the contingencies we have discussed in a recent chart ($SEK or $NOK, I believe).

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
BitProf 4xForecaster
a year ago
Target hit at 225. Amazing job again, David. Oddly enough, none of the other exchanges touched the target, not even btce, which hovered just above at 226.03
+1 Reply
18 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


Price remains subdued under price level corresponding to Point-3; Testing upside is possible but limited; Remains bearish overall:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
ucdos1988 PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
good job
Reply
devlspawn 4xForecaster
10 months ago
Hey David, is this your latest chart on Bitcoin or am I just missing it?
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out