[I published this chart earlier as a private idea, looking for feedback from more experienced technical analysts. I've been in the cryptospace only for 5 months, focused on BTC because I realised I need to watch its every if I wanted to safely trade anything else].
I started to observe, in watching BTC live, and going back through its price history, that a seven-wave structure often plays out, both to the upside, and to the downside. It's very noticeable in crash structures.
This seven-wave structure aligns more or less to the 5-wave Elliot impulse. But I find it easier to count the seven, because in my view the fifth Elliot wave can be hard to project.
The seven-wave structure gives a chance to project the seventh wave, because usually Wave 5 will land on either the 0.702 or 0.786 Fibonacci taken from the start of the movement.
Using this structural analysis, after Wednesday it became clear to me that the base for BTC currently is not in.
If my wave count is right, it should come in at 21.4k, but possibly lower.
Earlier, I miscounted Wave 3 as Wave 5, which put my projection for the base off by 10k.
I lost a lot on this mistake.
The basis of the mistake was discounting the fakeout at the end of the ABC corrective move of Wave B of the larger ABC movement.
BTC is currently, in my view, printing Wave 7 of the C Wave of the larger ABC movement. Within that Wave 7 of this seven-wave structure, the whole seven-wave structure plays out again. And also in the seventh of that sub-wave.
BTC is currently printing Wave 5 down of the seven waves within the seventh wave.
@Mayfair_Ventures, This is the exactly the kind of analysis I need to learn. Thank you!
cheeseclock
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Maybe we'll see something this weekend. The lower volume would provide the opportunity to push it in one direction or the other rather than flagging. I'm still out until I can tell where we're going.
ianrdouglas
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@cheeseclock, 18 April was a Sunday, so the weekend is no object for those intent to pull down price. I could be wrong, and maybe BTC breaks out to the upside, but it seems to me sub-Wave 5 is next in what is Wave 7 of the ABC C Wave, and this wave will be the most noticeable if and when it comes.
itzblaze111
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I came to a similar conclusion, same wave pattern theory. My floor sat at 21.8; This may be the bottom or we may continue to crash, IMO. These waves have a lot less noise to me and look extremely clear this time, Opening a short position right now.