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Bitcoin: Is this the bottom?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Following the events of the last few hours, everyone is trying to determine whether this is the bottom on Bitcoin or there is more selling to come. We will use a simple cross examination to locate a probable bottom of this bearish cycle.

As we have done on a previous study (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD...) where we have studied the similarities of BTC's two bear cycles (2018/2019 and 2014/2015), we are using the 2014/ 2015 bear cycle as a model to project the behavior of the current one.

This shows that we are currently close to a bottom but not just there yet. The 2014/ 2015 bear cycle lasted for 410 days from Top to Bottom and lost roughly 86% in value. This indicates that the bottom of the 2018/ 2019 bear cycle will be roughly around 2,600 close to 28 January 2019.

So to answer the question, Bitcoin should lose another 50% of its value in the next 75 days if the 2014/ 2015 candle sequence is repeated. That should be the bottom after which a very long consolidation/ recovery period will follow.



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Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
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excellent.
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$4.3k from a higher perspective
+1 Reply
Bottom is reached on 5400 level.


Regards.
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@milanjelic, Thanks for the input Milan
+1 Reply
milanjelic InvestingScope
@InvestingScope,

You are welcome guys.

You are good.

Keep going.
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RamMasterFlash milanjelic
@milanjelic, If only your assumption was right... yikes. bloody weeks!
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milanjelic RamMasterFlash
@RamMasterFlash,

25% save (6650 sell, 5400 rebuy).

It's a safe and solid.
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RamMasterFlash milanjelic
@milanjelic, Right... but we are at 4,922 as we speak.
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milanjelic RamMasterFlash
@RamMasterFlash,

Mate if someone would offer me 25% safe (as per graph 6650 sell to US Dollars) and rebuy on 5.400 i would widely open accept it.

Equasion is more than clear 1250$ (if selling as per graph) - 300$-350$= 900$ profit.

Having in mind we will experience bounce as well, gives exponential growth +(25% - 5%) * 20% which would be more than good under these harsh circumstances.

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Thanks for sharing. We think we won't fall lower. One of the most important factors of the BTC’s network is its sustainability. How is it achieved?
Through miners. Why do they mine? Some of them just for fun but the vast majority because they earn money this way. When do they earn money? To make the story short – when their costs are lower than their income. What is the major cost of their operational activity? Electricity. Read more in our analysis.
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