Following the events of the last few hours, everyone is trying to determine whether this is the bottom on Bitcoin or there is more selling to come. We will use a simple cross examination to locate a probable bottom of this bearish cycle.
This shows that we are currently close to a bottom but not just there yet. The 2014/ 2015 bear cycle lasted for 410 days from Top to Bottom and lost roughly 86% in value. This indicates that the bottom of the 2018/ 2019 bear cycle will be roughly around 2,600 close to 28 January 2019.
So to answer the question, Bitcoin should lose another 50% of its value in the next 75 days if the 2014/ 2015 candle sequence is repeated. That should be the bottom after which a very long consolidation/ recovery period will follow.
you spent some time trying to arrange the two charts until you thought they look similar but they just dont. there is no conclusion you can take from this. if it happens, its just a coincidence. i wish it was that simple
janoslav
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@SorinBlajan, totally... different charts, different market conditions, not much point doing these comparisons imo
kabbo12
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Not sure..
CopyPasteProfit
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Great work! Hi strictly TA standpoint this is the chart I've been working off for about 3 months documenting the fall if anyone would like to fallow along. The data hasn't changed so there hasn't been any need to post any new charts on the larger picture of BTC besides the Bitfinex Premium right that has it thrown but its still the same data.
Here is the information I want to know from this crash:
1. Were the largest trades during this crash buys or sells
2. What currency was the first mover (USD, JPY, JUAN, PESOS, etc)
3. Which exchange was this started on (or was is uniform throughout)
4. What currency was the major seller and what currency was the major buyer where did the bitcoin move from and to
I am working on a system to understand this information. If there was clear information, there would be less panic, less fear, and less profit loss.