Kappy

The Arithmetic Bull vs The Log Bear

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The bearish primary degree count (on log scale) still satisfies more factors (i.e. volume trends, sentiment, proportionality, distance, time) than the bullish cycle degree count (on arithmetic scale) and I consider it the higher probability scenario.

Log scale shows that the rally to new all-time highs is not as big as it seems. Arithmetic scale shows how steep the trajectory has been, most comparable to the bubble rally to all-time highs previously. What followed was a two year decline which is inline with my big picture outlook that BTCUSD is working its way through a cycle degree expanding flat correction . A similar two year decline to at least the 200 level would satisfy this count perfectly.

At intermediate or minor degree a fourth wave is unfolding and we should expect a fifth wave rally which may be taking off as I type this. Once this high is in place, the next major move is a correction. Cycle degree wave IV or primary degree wave ((C)) of cycle II.
Comment: The latest vertical rally could also be labeled as wave (3) of ((3)) which would support an even greater bullish short to intermediate-term rally.

Again, volume does not support this. Sentiment is optimistic and/or complacent.