After the CPI Report was released this morning, everything dumped. However, BTC fully recovered back above support within the bear flag. Most trader sentiment is short and given the oversold conditions, this makes for an ideal contrarian long play until the Fed announcement on July 26th. I have three price areas that I am targeting.
TP 1: $23,000 - top of the bear flag
TP 2: $24,000-$26,000 - Most traders will be holding for 30k, so a reversal here could leave a lot of bag holders
TP 3: $28,000 - $30,000 - The ideal outcome for the bulls. I will probably cash out a little before 30k
The Fed is expected to announce a substantial rate hike to curb inflation, which will likely send all markets tanking. I will be out of this long trade before the 26th. But if BTC fails to this support level, I will exit. We are at an inflection point here at 20k so whichever way we decide to go, we should move quickly.
Good analysis - some other things to note, the CPI report is past data on inflation, doesn't say much about where inflation is going...oil prices have come down (though maybe temporary), one could argue that the panic selling has already priced in the extreme rate hike scenario. But overall, appreciate the caution in this analysis.
platymetheus
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last month the markets priced in the rate hike before the fed meeting.
Arshia1989
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With respect In my opinion, the floor of the RSI trend can be broken to create a positive divergence in the high time and then enter a new upward wave. I posted an analysis, you would like to see it and give your opinion.
miladchikol
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I do not think there is another rally towards 22K to even hit the descending trendline. It dumps from here, or stays here till that trendline approaches. P.S. I heard US interest rate will be 4%