Still nothing really happening the past few days, yet another boring weekend where day trading bulls and bears get fooled several times in a row. Something that has become almost standard, at least when we are inside the 6K levels. Volume is very low, it's like 80% of the volume is bot action and the rest is normal price action. It does fit the picture a bit that the market has still not made up it's mind yet. At the moment that fractal i posted earlier this week is still in play, but it's clear that the market is less convincing this time compared to the August move up. But in August there was that big Finex whale pushing the price up with orders of 2K to 5K bitcoins at a time.
On the right we can see that Bitcoin seems to be moving inside a triangle, from what i can judge, i think we will get an decision within the next 24 hours. I see 2 options here:
1) This current high is THE high for this move, bulls too weak to reach that resistance and the bears take over will push the price down again. The bulls do step in and push it towards that resistance around 6700, then it will be likely they will break upwards ad continue that fractal on the left.
The levels for now are the 6520ish and the previous low around 6420. Below the 6400 we have to assume this short term uptrend is broken. The volume is still very low at the moment, but it's weekend but next to that, assuming the triangle is real, it is more than normal that we see low volume.
I have 2 very big fractals still in a hidden post, 1 bullish and 1 bearish, i won't be sharing those until we see a break of certain levels. Both show big moves, but that's no surprise because the whole market is expecting that since we are still moving inside that big triangle from the 8500 high to the 5800 low.
Previous analysis:
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Alts are showing very indecisive patterns as well, so no real clue there at the moment. One thing that does stick out, the Bitmex bears are really pushing bitstamp down, the last few drops (like Monday) and a month ago, they were using Coinbase for this. I will post one of my last updates here because i think it's worth the read for the ones who might have missed it.........................
There was a forced drop on Bitmex and it's brothers (bitstamp/coinbase and now Kraken as well) where the difference between them and Finex and Binance went up to almost 40 points. That's quite exceptional! This is evidence that shows us that some (one) is playing around and is forcing moves. They use these exchanges because they have low volume compared to Finex and Binance. I have talked about these tricks for a long time now, unfortunately they are becoming worse. They force the active trader to, either scalp or only do big trades with wide stops to be able to ignore the noise.
I have a special chart made by one of my members, it shows where the prices are of each exchange. The past 2 months, there is a standard gap between the Bitmex brothers and other top exchanges. I am now trying to figure out how the price of Kraken has developed the past month, because they have been added to the Bitmex mark price since 16 Sept as well. My guess is, that Kraken was average or like Finex and since that day it has been on the level of the bitmex brothers, confirming that without any huge fundamental changes in this market, it's just a toy being used by traders who have the funds to play around.
Anyway, they pushed the price down but Finex and Binance did not follow, eventually the price moved up again. Now the ones who shorted it, either push even even more or they will cut there losses and buy it all back again. We are just 40/60 points above that low, so it will be important to see what will happen next. if these Bitmex bears win, they will probably get it below the 6500 this time, if they loose they will probably push it above the 6600 and maybe towards the 6700 even.
This is no trading advice, this is just trying to figure out some clues from which we can benefit. But this is very complicated and they mix up their games allot!
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On the Daily, there is still no real decision, we would have gotten a real buy signal yesterday, if the bears would not have pushed it down half an hour before the daily close. Now it's about 60/40, the bulls wan't to see a move like a month ago in the yellow circle. . The triangle move should be revealing it's hand hopefully today. Those levels on the right are the ones to watch. Maybe the best lead we have now, is that small channel we're in now. If the bulls stay inside it, we can assume the bulls attack the resistance, if it drops below, the chances increase allot that the bears will attack the support of the triangle again. There is just no clear direction yet, it's a triangle inside a big triangle. Triangles are a translation of a market that doesn't know which side to choose. The only clear sign, is the low volume in general lately, that's a bearish sign. But allot of alts show the opposite again the past month.
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The attempt to break up failed, the volume was just very low which is a weak sign itself. Seems like this small upwards trend line is about to break now, which could bring the prices towards the next support around 6550. If that breaks, the previous low around 6500 would be the next challenge for the bears.
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The past few hours the gap between Bitstamp and it's Bitmex brothers has increased from 10 to 20 points and between Binance/Finex even to almost 50 points now. This is really new to me. As you know i have talked about Coinbase being the bearish one a few times, like Monday. But with Bitstamp the past 2 days, it's really new to me. Don't know if it's just random, hard to tell. With Coinbase it was not random, because the 2 or 3 times i noticed it, the price dropped allot!
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It was about to break the last update, went up a little bit and 4 hours later, 4 HOURS!! again at the same level. Moving for hours inside a 15 point range, damn! Anyway, not allot has changed, the support levels i mentioned are still the same. It looks the bears are in favor now, volume is just crap at the moment which is a bad sign on itself. Think the the 6660 and the 6550 ( on Bitfinex and Binance) are the levels to break to maybe get some direction. For the rest it's just allot of noise and waste of time.
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So that trend line really broke this time, target is around the 6500 but the 6550 could still be a support though. Support of the triangle is around 6440 now
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Before i forget, the red line i showed in the primary chart is in play now. Unless we see a quick jump up above the 6620ish again, we have to assume the bulls were too weak to reach the resistance of that triangle, which is a very weak signs. It's just still weekend, low volume, so the chances for pingpong is just very big. At the moment the bulls are trying to push up again, but it it stop below the 6590, it's nothing more that a retest of former support
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When zooming out a bit, we can see the fractal is still in play. We had allot of sideways action back than as well. Only a break of around 6400/6440 would invalidate that fractal.
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It's almost like all the exchanges want to drop, but Binance is pushing to the upside again. Unless they see some backup, i don't see the Binance bulls pulling this off all by themselves. It's still below the former trend line, so nothing more than a retest. Need's to get above it again, not just a wick. Pingpong action all over again, just not ending.
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Think we should call it PingPong world instead of Crypto world
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I don't like these kind of H&S patterns, because they are very unreliable. But if we see follow through the coming hour, it could really work out though. But it means we should see a good, fast high volume move up. Anything slow, will most probably be a failed attempt. Even if the neckline breaks, we need to see a break of 6660, but also on the Bitmex brothers exchanges.
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Still not there yet, the neckline still needs to break. But as i said, we need to see big volume increase and a quick rally above 6700, otherwise it will most probably fail.
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And there it seems we have another failed attempt, but now on the upside. Volume was too low during that weak attempt to break the 6660.
I am calling it a day, it's quite useless to say what the next step will be, too much noise. Think for now the levels to watch are, 6660 and 6730 for the upside and 6540 and 6400 on the down side. Everything in between, i would say flip a coin :)
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Starting to look a bit like these moves. Quick dumps and pumps again, with the highs getting slower lower. The blue one is a bit different and the current one is a bit different as well because of the position, it's not at the high. But it's showing similarities.
That inverse H&S is almost completely of the table, unless we see a quick move up above the 6650/6700. That will probably be the only move the bulls have left for now. Otherwise we have to assume we will drop again to the support of that triangle. I think we have 12 to max 24 hours left before we should see a break of this triangle.
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Within a minute of my last update the market moves, at the moment in a danger zone. A bounce so far from the triangle support, but i give it 30% chance it will hold. The bulls have been too weak at the 6600ish level and while getting at this support, that red line is playing out at the moment. The daily is looking bad as well, meaning if this support breaks and the 6400ish will break as well, the bulls will be in very big trouble. So unless they step up now within the next few min to half an hour, the chances increase allot that the big triangle (5800/8500) could break on the downside this weak. I am being very careful with what my expectations are, because Bitcoin has been ping ponging allot lately. While i am writing this, even it is still a small bounce, but each bounce the past days started out small.
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So it made almost an identical move, it showed it my members while it was still in the making, but not something we traded. I don't like to gamble so i am being careful with giving trades. But it did stick out though so it was worth showing it for the ones who were already in a pos.
Yet again it seems like the bulls want to turn it around again. But this is also NOT the first attempt. There have been more that have failed! So another inverse H&S on the left, but it needs a solid breakout with volume if it wants to stand a chance against the mighty bears. The bulls need a good solid push above 6700 to be able to breath a bit, anything below 6700ish will remain very dangerous. At the moment the price is just hanging around the neck/resistance line, which is a bad sign already. Bull need to show conviction otherwise it will just be a matter of time until the bears take over again, like they have done several times the past weeks.
Everyone is either tired of the trap market or waiting for big trade moves and confirmation. I doubt anyone is taking the risk to make the first move except the insiders from the two largest exchanges of course.
It might be the calm before the storm or the last darkness before the first ray of dawn.
moviestar
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@Cryptodesperate, last time one rather sure signal of the end of the bear market was the crossing of MA130 and MA340. if this should happen again, theres still some way to go.
botje11
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@Cryptodesperate, Yes, that would confirm the low volume, and it is normal during triangles, that people wait to see which direction will be taken. That's why we usually see a volume increase when the pattern breaks
kardia
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@Cryptodesperate, That's pretty much what it is going to take at this point, and I think they understand this by now. Hodlers are hardcore. We will hold forever if we have to. We will not surrender! If they push it down far enough, there won't be any sellers left, and then the market will be dead. I don't think they will let that happen. They have too much to lose if they do.
VaidoVeek
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Yeah, similar view points and the BTC is on the Ascending Triangle, some thoughts about the weekend pa.:
All the best!
asgcorp
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no end of bear market in sight. See you @ 5 500 soon. Bulls lack a meaningful catalyst to break out of the bear spell.
UnknownUnicorn2454397
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So much 60 min chart action for a year's worth of movement... sigh..
asgcorp
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target for the bulls is 7300
VaidoVeek
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Hello! I would like to share the BTC complete breakdown (MONTHLY to 4H timeframe)
The only completely bearish timeframe is monthly, all the others have bullish signs!
All the best!
Zenter
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Cmon bulls, why are you so weak? ! Just one short squeeze will be enough..
It might be the calm before the storm or the last darkness before the first ray of dawn.