BTC: Bearish or Bullish breakout will longer term trend.
BTC is presently being rejected by the top of the ascending wedge.
If BTC breaks out above, that would be confirmation of the bullish inverse head and shoulder pattern (as drawn) with a measured move all the way back to ~50kUSD, as well as above the weekly 21 EMA which will confirm a continuation of a macro bull cycle, if the weekly candle does indeed manages to close above the weekly 21 EMA at the end of this week.
If BTC falls to the bottom of and breaks below the ascending wedge, however, then it would be unlikely for BTC to close its weekly candle above the weekly 21 EMA, confirming a macro bear phase, that could send BTC down to revisit the psychological level of 20kUSD near previous ATH, or perhaps even overshoot a little before a longer term consolidation ahead that will retk alts in this scenario.
An ascending wedge has a higher probability of breaking down than up.
If BTC breaks out above, that would be confirmation of the bullish inverse head and shoulder pattern (as drawn) with a measured move all the way back to ~50kUSD, as well as above the weekly 21 EMA which will confirm a continuation of a macro bull cycle, if the weekly candle does indeed manages to close above the weekly 21 EMA at the end of this week.
If BTC falls to the bottom of and breaks below the ascending wedge, however, then it would be unlikely for BTC to close its weekly candle above the weekly 21 EMA, confirming a macro bear phase, that could send BTC down to revisit the psychological level of 20kUSD near previous ATH, or perhaps even overshoot a little before a longer term consolidation ahead that will retk alts in this scenario.
An ascending wedge has a higher probability of breaking down than up.
Comment:
Typo on the subject title. It should had been: "Bearish or Bullish breakout will determine longer term trend."
Comment:
Bearish scenario playing out:
BTC have just broken down below the ascending triangle, and failed a retest.
BTC have just broken down below the ascending triangle, and failed a retest.
Comment:
Bearish measured move in confluence with the 32.3k USD support level:
Comment:
If the 32.3k USD support fails to hold, the reasonable level for BTC to continue (and possibly bottom out at) is the 61.8% Fib retracement level (drawn from the Dec'18 bottom to the latest ATH) at 27k USD.
Will need to pierce this level first (and then re-examine the chart) before we can even talk about possibly revisiting the ~18-20k USD level, IMO.
Will need to pierce this level first (and then re-examine the chart) before we can even talk about possibly revisiting the ~18-20k USD level, IMO.
Comment:
Another chance for the bulls?
Potential W-pattern forming... confirmation at breakout (see white arrowed line drawn):
Potential W-pattern forming... confirmation at breakout (see white arrowed line drawn):
Comment:
Both bullish and bearish scenarios didn't play out, and BTC is now confined within an ascending channel (with more touch points, hence greater validity) as the chart evolves. The thick green ichimoku cloud that had been lifting BTC up is starting to thin on this timeframe.
Zooming out, it looks like a bearflag is forming.
Will need to wait and see which way BTC may breakout first though.
Zooming out, it looks like a bearflag is forming.
Will need to wait and see which way BTC may breakout first though.
Comment:
The measured move of the bear flag (in the event of BTC breaking down) is at 17.5kUSD, close to the 78.6% Fib retracement level.
In the event of the bearish scenario playing out, however, there are levels (as drawn, including the 61.8% Fib retracement level at 27k USD) that may provide some degree of support along the way.
However, there's a chance for yet another waterfall drop towards the strong support at the previous cycle's ATH if current level fails, and especially if BTC fails to show any sign of strong recover by the end of this week to close its weekly candle above the weekly 21 EMA, IMO.
However, there's a chance for yet another waterfall drop towards the strong support at the previous cycle's ATH if current level fails, and especially if BTC fails to show any sign of strong recover by the end of this week to close its weekly candle above the weekly 21 EMA, IMO.
Comment:
Breakdown established. Will the 36.1kUSD support level hold?
Comment:
Unlikely, but if it somehow goes back into the ascending channel (above the orange line) -- forming the massive bearflag -- that will confirm a bearish-fakeout and I may start trading alts within range again. Will become bullish again if it pierces above the yellow line and finds support above.
More likely than not, it will simply kiss the base of the orange line and then gets rejected, confirming the bearflag and a strong continuation to the downslide.
Meanwhile, lossa bullish news going on in the background now -- of institutional buyers getting interested and buying in significantly (or having been accumulating in).
Note: Buy and Sell (B and S) signals from my Cyber Ensemble script.
More likely than not, it will simply kiss the base of the orange line and then gets rejected, confirming the bearflag and a strong continuation to the downslide.
Meanwhile, lossa bullish news going on in the background now -- of institutional buyers getting interested and buying in significantly (or having been accumulating in).
Note: Buy and Sell (B and S) signals from my Cyber Ensemble script.
Comment:
Measured bearish move based on the m-pattern.
