BTC starting to near over-exponential growth phase : buckle up !
Now the real insane phase of this current growth cycle is starting. I do not like the term bubble, since btc is not a bubble. It is a network, and a network
can be priced. According to metcalfes law, we are actually not very overpriced. The value of a network is derived from the number of users and how often
it is used. Bitcoin has a current metcalfe price of around 6000$. So not too bubbly.
What bitcoin likes to do, is be borin 90% of the time, and then experience insane growth spurts for a short amount of time. We are experiencing now one
of these growth spurts on the long way to mass adoption.
The way there is described by a log-S curve. You can for example see the log-S beautifully with the number of internet users from 1995 to now. Or with the
number of smartphones. All log-S curves.
BTC is a network, a technology. And that's what many chartists don't get, and then they are astounded by these prices and talk about a bubble.
Yes, there will be a sharp correction after this growth spurt. For example from 20K to 8K. But then afterwards the next cycle starts. And so on and so forth until
around the year 2025-2030 btc has become mainstream and a price has been reached that will not rise much more afterwards. Yes, it will fluctuate, but the
volatility will be so much lower than nowadays. A 1% gain in that era will be a major rally, lol !
Looking at the chart, we see that now we are entering the overbought area in the weekly Stoch RSI. This is when the last phase starts, with insane price growth,
over-exponential price growth. This "acceleration point" can be beatifully seen in the prvevious growth phases of 2013. After that point, we start seeing very
big weekly candles. We now had the first larger weekly candle, and therefore I think that the last phase is starting now, which might last a few weeks: 2-5 weeks.
Fun times ahead. Enjoy the coming weeks and see you on the moon :)
can be priced. According to metcalfes law, we are actually not very overpriced. The value of a network is derived from the number of users and how often
it is used. Bitcoin has a current metcalfe price of around 6000$. So not too bubbly.
What bitcoin likes to do, is be borin 90% of the time, and then experience insane growth spurts for a short amount of time. We are experiencing now one
of these growth spurts on the long way to mass adoption.
The way there is described by a log-S curve. You can for example see the log-S beautifully with the number of internet users from 1995 to now. Or with the
number of smartphones. All log-S curves.
BTC is a network, a technology. And that's what many chartists don't get, and then they are astounded by these prices and talk about a bubble.
Yes, there will be a sharp correction after this growth spurt. For example from 20K to 8K. But then afterwards the next cycle starts. And so on and so forth until
around the year 2025-2030 btc has become mainstream and a price has been reached that will not rise much more afterwards. Yes, it will fluctuate, but the
volatility will be so much lower than nowadays. A 1% gain in that era will be a major rally, lol !
Looking at the chart, we see that now we are entering the overbought area in the weekly Stoch RSI. This is when the last phase starts, with insane price growth,
over-exponential price growth. This "acceleration point" can be beatifully seen in the prvevious growth phases of 2013. After that point, we start seeing very
big weekly candles. We now had the first larger weekly candle, and therefore I think that the last phase is starting now, which might last a few weeks: 2-5 weeks.
Fun times ahead. Enjoy the coming weeks and see you on the moon :)
Comment:
So this is unfolding at a slower pace than initially thought. Due to this correction to 5600, we are a bit delayed, a few weeks behind schedule. The acceleration point is being reached now, since btc went through a very important resistance yesterday. I expect 20K by end of december now, instead of end of november as in the published chart.