Now the real insane phase of this current growth cycle is starting. I do not like the term bubble, since btc is not a bubble. It is a network, and a network can be priced. According to metcalfes law, we are actually not very overpriced. The value of a network is derived from the number of users and how often it is used. Bitcoin has a current metcalfe price of around 6000$. So not too bubbly. What bitcoin likes to do, is be borin 90% of the time, and then experience insane growth spurts for a short amount of time. We are experiencing now one of these growth spurts on the long way to mass adoption. The way there is described by a log-S curve. You can for example see the log-S beautifully with the number of internet users from 1995 to now. Or with the number of smartphones. All log-S curves.
BTC is a network, a technology. And that's what many chartists don't get, and then they are astounded by these prices and talk about a bubble. Yes, there will be a sharp correction after this growth spurt. For example from 20K to 8K. But then afterwards the next cycle starts. And so on and so forth until around the year 2025-2030 btc has become mainstream and a price has been reached that will not rise much more afterwards. Yes, it will fluctuate, but the volatility will be so much lower than nowadays. A 1% gain in that era will be a major rally, lol !
Looking at the chart, we see that now we are entering the overbought area in the weekly Stoch RSI. This is when the last phase starts, with insane price growth, over-exponential price growth. This "acceleration point" can be beatifully seen in the prvevious growth phases of 2013. After that point, we start seeing very big weekly candles. We now had the first larger weekly candle, and therefore I think that the last phase is starting now, which might last a few weeks: 2-5 weeks.
Fun times ahead. Enjoy the coming weeks and see you on the moon :)
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So this is unfolding at a slower pace than initially thought. Due to this correction to 5600, we are a bit delayed, a few weeks behind schedule. The acceleration point is being reached now, since btc went through a very important resistance yesterday. I expect 20K by end of december now, instead of end of november as in the published chart.
100k by end of 2018?^^ Where? But good analysis though.
Trunqs
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DUDE, YOU ARE A GENIUS!!!
Bella88
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Bitcoin can easily reach 250k within 3-4 years once cme and hedge funds institutionals, get active, remember bitcoin at $600 just like yesterday.
who would have believed at 8k now, just a dream u laughed at hoping.
SebastianofMoon
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@Asam, I agree. Everyone keeps underestimating the longterm price of bitcoin, I also would not have thought such prices possible this year, and this rally isn't even over yet. Also, one has to remember that only a fraction of the coins are on the exchanges, so when institutional investors will get onboard, there will be really a severe coin supply shortage on the exchanges, which might lead to these incredible prices.
Bella88
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248,000k by 2019 , jumping to far ahead with your ideas , will be nowhere near that , this will not keep going up forever, more possible accurate will be 250k in 2025
SebastianofMoon
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@Asam, Hi, yes, I agree, and these values have a huge error margin. Meaning that if you draw that diagram only slightly different, the value drops or rises sharply. I think 100k by the end of 2018 is more realistic, and that will be then end of this historic wave 3. After that, a long bearmarket until the halving 2020.
malloofiscoofis
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how did you calculate the dllar value of bitcoin from metcalfes?
SebastianofMoon
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@adoukas, I didn't calculate it, there are some others on bitcointalk regulalry calculating it. There is a great thread called "analysis" from the legendary masterluc on bitcointalk, where I get infos like these.
Dudleydogg
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I have joined a few mining Pools who count on the Halfing event to profit from. claim coin will spike in price when its realized they are running out.
erelerel
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great analysis! as much as your previous predictions.